SPC AC 041630
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005
   
   VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E
   TOL 25 NNW LUK 20 NE HOP 40 NE UOX 55 WSW MEM 55 N LIT 25 WNW TBN 10
   NNW UIN 25 NNW CGX 15 SSE OSC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
   LVS 30 W PUB 30 NNE LAR 25 ENE DGW 25 SSW CDR 25 W MCK 20 SW DDC 45
   E GAG 55 ESE OKC 30 E DAL 25 W ACT 35 N JCT 25 NE INK 40 SE LVS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 20 SSE GDP
   30 NE ALM 20 ESE 4SL 35 SW CEZ 30 SSE BCE 25 E P38 60 N DRA 20 ESE
   BIH 45 NW BIH 55 S NFL 35 NNW U31 65 NNE ENV 40 NNW EVW 50 NE RKS 25
   ESE LND 45 ESE JAC 15 NE MQM 25 NNE BZN 40 N BIL 35 SSW REJ 40 ESE
   PHP 25 WSW OFK 10 WNW OMA 55 E OMA 45 NE DSM 40 SW LSE 30 S EAU 40
   ENE RWF 35 NNW ATY 25 SSE JMS 50 NE JMS 25 WNW INL ...CONT... EFK 30
   ENE IPT 15 SE HGR 45 NE CHO 25 W RIC 20 SSE ORF ...CONT... 45 SW GLS
   25 S CLL 20 NNE AUS 20 ESE JCT 10 WNW DRT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   INTO WRN TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID SOUTH/MID MS RIVER
   VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RESPECTABLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING SSEWD INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 50S FROM SERN WY INTO
   ERN CO.  MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SERIES OF LOW
   AMPLITUDE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH FLAT WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
   PATTERN EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. 
   COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASED ASCENT AS THESE WEAK
   DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD SUPPORT
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF ERN WY INTO
   CENTRAL CO/NRN NM BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  MLCAPES WILL RANGE
   FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ALLOW STORMS TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY SPREAD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN
   LATE TODAY AND MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.  THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS
   NOT TOO STRONG...ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY
   EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE/ORGANIZE INTO ONE MORE MCS/S AND
   PROPAGATE/MOVE SEWD AFTER DARK WITH TRANSITION INTO A WIND DAMAGE
   AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT DURING THE EVENING.
   
   ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
   SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD INTO THIS
   REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
   TO SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY. MORNING SATELLITE
   IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  THOUGH
   PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO SWLY...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS/PROFILES INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS FROM THE MID SOUTH NEWD
   INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON.  REFERENCE SWOMCD 1637 FOR ADDITIONAL
   DETAILS ABOUT NEAR-TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL.  ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO
   A BROKEN SQUALL LINE AND SPREAD THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EWD INTO IND/SRN LOWER MI AND PORTIONS OF THE
   LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY BAND OF SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SRN WI INTO CENTRAL LAKE MI
   ATTM...AS THEY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT NWD INTO
   NRN LOWER MI TODAY...WITH PRIMARY THREAT REMAINING S-SE OF CURRENT
   BAND OF CLOUDS.
   
   ...WRN TX INTO NRN TX AND SRN AR/NRN LA...
   AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED FROM CENTRAL TX
   EWD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS.
    ATTM...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AND
   BRIEF-LIVED OVER THIS REGION GIVEN WEAK LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 
   UNLESS STORMS CAN ORGANIZE ALONG WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SHEAR
   APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AND LIMIT
   SEVERE THREAT TO PULSE-TYPE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL.
   
   HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE FARTHER WEST ALONG
   SLOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO WRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MAF/S
   SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY STRONG CAP.  HOWEVER...HOT AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD ENABLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
   AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE ALONG THIS PORTION OF OUTFLOW.  SHEAR IS A
   BIT STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY NWD INTO THE WEST TX
   PLAINS...AND SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SLOW
   MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
   
   ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/04/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z