SPC AC 142007
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005
   
   VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
   BOS 30 SSW ALB 35 SSW UCA 20 ENE ROC ...CONT... 15 S HUL AUG PWM.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
   INL 60 W AXN 35 E PIR 30 NNE PHP 65 SSE Y22 70 N DVL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE YUM 65 SW PRC
   45 N IGM 35 SW P38 30 NW DRA 30 S BIH 40 WSW BIH 50 WNW TVL 30 SSW
   SVE 45 NNE EKO 30 NNE ENV 40 ENE EVW 50 S COD 50 ENE 4BQ 60 NNW MOT
   ...CONT... 30 NW MQT 40 N SUX 20 WSW LHX 30 WNW CAO 20 SW DHT 40 S
   GAG END 25 SW TOP 40 SSW MBL 15 NNE APN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
   NRN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN...
   
   ...NRN NY TO ME...
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
   EXTENDED FROM FAR NRN ME SWWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH A PRE-
   FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ME SWWD INTO CENTRAL NY. AIR
   MASS ACROSS NY INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY
   ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES.  SRN EXTENT OF SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN NY/NEW
   ENGLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM JUST OFF
   THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MAINLY LINEAR STRUCTURE IN
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING
   THE PRIMARY THREAT.  SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER
   THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZING THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS TO NWRN MN...
   SURFACE FRONT...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDED FROM FAR NERN ND
   SWWD TO NORTH CENTRAL-WRN SD...WITH THE AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY OF
   AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CANADA...WHILE
   WEAKER ASCENT EXTENDS SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS/NWRN MN.  THIS WEAKER
   ASCENT COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT
   ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EVENING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGING FROM 35-50 KT OVER THE SLIGHT
   RISK AREA COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER
   THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASE.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE SE/MID ATLANTIC STATES...
   TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE GULF
   COAST AND ERN STATES WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
   PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED ALONG
   E-W ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGHS AND ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES.  WET
   MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST
   THREATS GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE
   ACROSS WRN AND SWRN TX WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER.
   OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/14/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z