SPC AC 152002
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005
   
   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 20 ESE GBN
   30 W PHX 55 SSW PRC 65 ENE BLH 60 WSW EED 20 S DAG 25 N RAL 30 SSE
   PMD 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC
   45 SE BNO 30 NNW BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 NNW
   P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 30 E INL ...CONT... 20
   WNW ART 10 NNE PSM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RWL 35 WNW WRL
   55 NW RIW 45 WNW LND 45 W RKS 35 E VEL CAG 45 WSW LAR 35 E RWL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CVS 45 W PVW
   25 E PVW 25 NNW CDS 35 NW CSM 25 WNW END 30 SSW ICT 10 SSW EMP MKC
   25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 50 SSW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30 NNE
   CVS.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE NWRN STATES THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE PAC
   NW TO SRN AND ERN CANADA.  GENERALLY WEAK FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE U.S. WILL PREVAIL.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN SD/NERN NEB...
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   NERN MN SWWD INTO ERN SD AND NRN NEB...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/
   REINFORCED LAKE BREEZE EXTENDING FROM NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL MN. AIR
   MASS ALONG/S OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 
   SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA EXTENDED INTO
   NRN MN...AND WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.  WEAK LOW LEVEL
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
   AND OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FARTHER S/SW ACROSS
   SRN MN/ERN SD INTO NRN NEB.  THIS FORECAST WILL THUS MAINTAIN THE
   LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
   NERN MN INTO NRN WI WHERE SHEAR/CAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOR A FEW
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ACROSS
   CENTRAL/NERN MN AND EXTREME NWRN WI...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION 1758.
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WY...SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONTINUED
   SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
   WY/WRN SD SWD INTO CO INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
   WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...GIVEN THE MID LEVEL
   THERMAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING INVERSION.  WEAK TO MODERATE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE
   MULTICELLS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
   THREATS.  THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN MT TO
   ERN CO WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE INTO THE
   EVENING.
   
   ...AZ...
   ENELY STEERING FLOW AROUND UPPER HIGH TO THE N WILL SUPPORT A
   TENDENCY FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
   OF THE MOUNTAINS TO PROPAGATE INTO SURROUNDING DESERT VALLEYS.
   VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEGUN TO
   DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AZ INTO FAR SWRN NM. 
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING INTO THE VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF THIS
   ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO AROUND 50
   DEGREES...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
   ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
   LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR DOWNBURST WINDS INTO THE EVENING.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC/SERN STATES...
   LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE
   ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH/REMNANTS OF DENNIS...WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE
   OH VALLEY TO TX.  MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT EXTENSIVE
   COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY
   OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND/OR NEAR WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
   CENTERS.  WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
   MAINLY ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z