SPC AC 200546
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW
   ANJ 50 W PLN 45 SSW HTL 25 SSE SBN 45 NNW DNV 10 E BRL 40 S OMA 25 S
   MHN 50 NNE VTN 25 SW ATY 20 S BRD 55 N IWD 100 NE CMX.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
   LRD 60 N BRO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E TOL 25 S CMH 40
   ENE CRW 40 SSW MRB 35 SSW ACY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL
   40 SW BFL 15 N UKI 25 ESE CEC 40 SE OTH 55 SE EUG 65 S RDM 40 ENE
   4LW 50 S EKO 30 NW MLF 20 NNE CNY CAG 45 ENE RWL 55 SW GCC 60 SW MLS
   70 SSW GGW OLF 20 S ISN 45 NNE Y22 65 NE MBG 50 SSE FAR 10 SSE BJI
   INL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 40 E JCT 30 NNW
   ACT 25 WNW PRX 25 ESE MKO 10 SW JLN 40 E EMP 25 SSE SLN 10 S DDC 20
   SSE DHT 25 NE ROW 70 SSW GDP.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION WSWWD INTO PARTS OF SD / NEB...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS DEEP S TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS NRN
   MEXICO S OF EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS...BELT OF
   STRONGER / ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST N OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
   THE NRN U.S. / SRN CANADA.  MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM THE
   ERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
   THROUGH THIS STRONGER / SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW.
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES WSWWD INTO SERN SD / NERN NEB...
   MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NERN SD THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
   MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  BY THE START OF THE
   PERIOD...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN / NRN IA...WITH AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM SRN IA WNWWD ACROSS NRN NEB / SRN SD.
    THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SRN WI
   / NRN IL...ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS /
   HAIL.  THOUGH CONVECTION MAY CROSS NRN IN / LOWER MI
   OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD
   RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT.
   
   MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FURTHER NW ALONG COLD
   FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  DEVELOPMENT / INTENSITY OF CONVECTION MAY
   BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE ALONG FRONT ACROSS NRN WI / MN BY PRESENCE
   RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS FURTHER S OVER IA / SRN WI.  MORE FAVORED AREA
   FOR DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST THOUGH ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD / NRN
   NEB...WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. 
   THOUGH THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED LATE
   AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. BY EARLY EVENING...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
   NEAR / JUST N OF BOUNDARY...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. 
   
   STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME
   SEVERE...AS FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE / SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED
   NEAR AND AHEAD OF FRONT.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS...AS STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT
   IN FAIRLY HIGH LCLS.  A GREATER TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST WITHIN
   POTENTIALLY COOLER / MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS N OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IA / MN MCS...THOUGH EXISTENCE / LOCATION
   OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS LESS THAN CERTAIN ATTM.
   
   OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN MN / IA...THOUGH
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...DEEP S TX...
   HURRICANE EMILY SHOULD BE INLAND BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT
   WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW WWD PROGRESS.  THIS HURRICANE IS QUITE COMPACT
   ATTM...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO AREAS S
   OF THE RIO GRANDE.  HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF BANDED CONVECTION
   FURTHER FROM THE CENTER / NWD INTO S TX WILL BE POSSIBLE.  WITH
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION S OF
   CRP / LRD...WILL MAINTAIN 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY OVER THIS REGION.
   
   ...SRN HALF OF AZ...
   ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON / EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SW...AS DAYTIME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION RESULTS IN
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  WITH UPPER RIDGE
   CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION...FLOW OVER NRN PORTIONS OF AZ
   SHOULD REMAIN WEAK -- AND THUS CONVECTION GENERALLY DISORGANIZED. 
   HOWEVER...BELT OF STRONGER ELY FLOW ACROSS SRN AZ MAY ALLOW MORE
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...ALONG WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL.  ATTM...WILL
   MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY.  HOWEVER...PARTS OF SRN AZ MAY
   REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS...IF NAM
   INDICATIONS OF SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THIS
   REGION PROVE CORRECT.
   
   ..GOSS/BANACOS.. 07/20/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z