SPC AC 242004
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005
   
   VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
   BUF 15 S BFD 45 W MRB 35 WNW SHD 25 NE BKW 20 SW CRW 40 W UNI 30 E
   FWA 20 NNW MLI 10 SW IML 50 N CYS 35 WSW DGW 55 S SHR 55 SW MLS 25 W
   GDV 40 SSW P24 50 ESE MBG 35 SSE EAU 15 WNW MTW 30 ENE APN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE SBA 20 SSW FAT
   50 SE TVL 35 SW EKO 35 NNE EKO 35 SSW PIH 50 E PIH 25 SW JAC 25 N
   JAC 20 SSW WEY 60 WNW IDA 30 NW SUN 60 NNW BOI 45 NE BKE 65 ENE 63S
   ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 25 NNW GFK 30 SE TVF 30 SW HIB 40 WNW IWD 10 S
   CMX 20 N ANJ ...CONT... 45 W 3B1 25 W PWM 20 E ISP ...CONT... 35 NE
   SBY 45 ENE DAN 30 N GSO 45 NE CAE 40 ESE CAE 40 ENE CHS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE JAN 30 ENE LUL
   10 WNW MGM 30 WSW ANB 25 NNE CSV 25 SW JKL 30 E LEX 30 NW SDF 20 SSE
   MVN 40 SSW JBR 55 E PBF GLH 15 NNE JAN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CNK 30 WNW SLN
   20 E DDC 60 SSW LBL 15 W AMA 20 NE PVW 25 SW CSM 15 SSE END 20 NNW
   CNU 55 SSE OJC 50 N SZL 35 ENE STJ 20 SW FNB 20 ENE CNK.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO
   THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...LOWER MI TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO
   MOVE EWD...AND NOW EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SEWD
   TO CENTRAL OH/WV.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO THE WEST OF THIS
   BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S BENEATH A PLUME
   OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM
   SECTOR /MLCAPE UP TO 3500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND BILLOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE
   WARM SECTOR PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTED THIS AIR MASS REMAINED CAPPED.
   
   
   SOME COOLING AT MID LEVELS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH
   OF AN APPARENT WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN IA/SWRN WI MAY
   PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM
   FRONT OVER LOWER MI.  IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS
   WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF STORM
   INITIATION...SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN
   THE SAME AS ISSUED WITH PREVIOUS SWODY1.  WLY LLJ IS PROGGED TO
   STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH INCREASING
   LOW LEVEL WAA FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK SEWD OVER THE
   UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GIVEN ELEVATED
   NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ISOLATED HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT.
   
   ...PARTS OF NEB/SERN SD EWD TO SWRN GREAT LAKES AREA...
   MCV/WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS ERN NEB/SRN MN/IA
   TO WI THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS
   INDICATED A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SRN WI WSWWD ACROSS NRN
   IA TO NERN-CENTRAL NEB TO NWRN KS.  A SECOND BOUNDARY...MOST LIKELY
   A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...EXTENDED FROM SRN MN TO CENTRAL
   WI.  STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE
   SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION WILL BE SLOW INTO THE EVENING.  ANY STORMS
   THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SUPERCELLS GIVEN A
   VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  ADDITIONAL
   STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA AS LOW
   LEVEL WAA INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK
   SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO SWRN ND INTO SERN MT...AND
   IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NWRN SD.
    STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
   STRONG MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA.  INCREASING
   LOW LEVEL WAA OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FURTHER INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/24/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z