SPC AC 271944
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005
   
   VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
   WAL 15 SSW RIC 35 E LYH 50 SW AVL 25 NNW RMG 15 WSW HSV 15 NE MSL 35
   NE CSV 35 SSW EKN 20 NW MRB 35 N MSV 20 ESE LEB 25 S HUL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP 20 S LRD
   ...CONT... 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 E FAT BIH 40 S U31 70
   ESE U31 P38 SGU 35 S BCE 30 SSE BCE 30 NNW U17 20 S VEL 40 NNW LAR
   35 SE DGW CDR 45 ESE CDR 20 WSW MHN 20 S IML LAA LVS ABQ TCS ALM ELP
   MRF BWD PRX PGO DYR UNI DUJ UCA MPV 20 SSE CAR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ANJ CWA ATY
   MBG 40 SSW REJ 4BQ SHR 40 NNE BIL GGW 55 NNW GGW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE 4BK 15 SSW EUG
   20 S PDX 35 SE DLS 75 N 4LW 25 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 30 ENE 4BK.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS
   OF NEW ENGLAND...THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND THE TN
   VALLEY....
   
   ...TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO ATLANTIC STATES...
   SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... AS
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
   EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX.  FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
   HAS AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF BROKEN NARROW LINE OF STORMS ALONG COLD
   FRONT...FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHICH WILL
   CONTINUE SLOW SOUTHWARD ADVANCE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
   COAST/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY LATE TONIGHT.
   
   STRONGER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...EXTENDING JUST AHEAD OF
   FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... 
   IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST.
   BUT...MEAN FLOW REGIME /ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 50 KT/ WILL REMAIN
   STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORMS FROM
   THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   THOUGH FLOW REGIME IS WEAKER WEST OF THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   IS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE COLD
   POOLS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A BIT MORE BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO
   SOLIDIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   AS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS...OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
   MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
   PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE
   DELMARVA PENINSULA.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THIS
   AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F...AND
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.
   
   ...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   MOISTURE IS MARGINAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
   MID-LEVEL COOLING ABOVE PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL OVERSPREADING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
   STRONGEST CELLS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR
   BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS... BEFORE RAPIDLY
   WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...WESTERN STATES...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
   CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AIDED BY WEAK IMPULSE
   MIGRATING AROUND SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER INTO THE OREGON COAST. 
   HIGH IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  AS
   THIS OCCURS...BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST
   APPEARS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO...WHERE MID-LEVELS
   REMAIN MOIST AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH
   WHICH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
   
   **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
   CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSIONS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/27/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z