Jul 29, 2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Jul 29 19:44:07 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 291941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT 40 SW RFD 35 NE UIN 40 N COU 35 N SZL 35 S BIE 35 ENE MCK 35 NE LIC 40 SSW PUB 15 SW SAF 35 ENE ONM 35 WNW ROW 40 S LBB 10 N SEP 40 W LFK 15 NNE POE 20 NE HEZ 30 WNW MSL 25 WSW LOZ 10 W HGR 20 ENE NEL ...CONT... 15 ENE PBG 25 SSW ROC 35 E TOL 35 W TOL 30 SSW AZO 15 SW GRR 45 WNW MBS 50 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 20 NE LAX 40 WSW FAT 45 E UKI 35 E ACV 25 SW MFR 75 NNE MFR 40 S PDT 55 S S06 35 NNW HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ATLANTIC COAST... NUMEROUS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...GA AND FL. THE CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND WEAK FORCING DUE TO AN ERN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE STORMS ARE FORMING NEAR AND ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM CNTRL GA TO ERN NC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 15 TO 20 KT SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. MOIST PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF SFC HEATING. ...UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS... A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN SD AROUND THE NERN END OF A SWRN US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ONGOING IN ERN NEB. AS THE ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SFC-BASED STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...PROFILERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING A FEW CELLS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF SFC-BASED STORMS DEVELOP BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. FARTHER WEST IN THE BLACK HILLS...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR THIS EVENING. THE CELLS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE HAIL THREAT BRIEF AND MARGINAL. ...SW DESERTS... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHICH IS TRANSPORTING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE SW DESERTS. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED STORM INITIATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA...AZ AND NV. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFT NWD INTO THE DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |