Jul 30, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Jul 30 12:50:16 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 301247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 40 SSW GFK 40 ENE BIS P24 70 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE MQT 40 SSW IMT 60 N EAU 10 SSW DLH 40 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E OSC 25 NE FNT 15 E BEH 25 SSE PIA 50 NE FNB 30 ENE GLD 20 SSW LHX 45 ESE LVS CVS 35 WSW CDS 30 ENE ABI TPL 50 ENE CLL 45 E LFK 20 NW MLU 25 NE PBF 30 SW MKL 35 WNW CSV 20 ESE LOZ 40 NE 5I3 15 ESE MGW 25 NNW BWI 30 SW ACY ...CONT... 40 S RAL 40 NNW DAG 40 N SAC 60 NNW UKI 15 SE OTH PDX PUW 35 NNE 3DU LWT 60 WNW MLS 15 E GDV 55 N ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI... ...ND/MN... LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER MOST OF THE NATION TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW FIELD. ONE FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ND/EASTERN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER ALB/MAN...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF ND BY EARLY EVENING. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND CAPE WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...MN/WI/MI... LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEB INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI BY 00Z. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET IS LIKELY TO AID IN THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LAKE MI DURING THE EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR INDICATE A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A MORE ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS STORMS MOVE INTO LOWER MI. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG HEATING AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TODAY FROM AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE /PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. STORMS MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS. ...AZ... WEAK EASTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN AZ TODAY. THIS AREA IS VERY MOIST WITH MORNING DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS BY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/BOTHWELL.. 07/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |