SPC AC 211257
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005
   
   VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 50 NW GBN
   25 SSE P38 25 E U31 10 E LOL 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10 SE FCA GTF 40
   WNW BIL 45 E 81V FSD 25 NW FOD 20 S CID 30 SW PIA 10 N STL 25 SE MDH
   40 N LEX 45 SSW CMH 35 SW CAK 40 NE CLE ...CONT... 15 SW MFE 35 NNW
   VCT 25 NW AUS 40 ESE SJT 40 W SJT 60 E FST 25 SE P07.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPR LOW NOW NEARING JAMES BAY SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL QUEBEC
   THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E INTO MANITOBA.  IN THE
   MUCH WEAKER SRN STREAM...UPR LOW NOW OVER NW CO EXPECTED TO SETTLE
   SLOWLY ESE...REACHING WRN KS BY 12Z MONDAY.
   
   AT LWR LEVELS...LEAD COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO LOW SHOULD
   MOVE E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/EARLY
   TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL REMAIN DIFFUSE AS FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
   PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGHS E OF THE APLCNS.  FARTHER SW...TRAILING WRN
   PART OF FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT N AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
   ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS.
   
   ...SRN NEW ENG/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF ONTARIO TROUGH
   MOVES E ACROSS REGION. THIS FLOW WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO REGION. 
   COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE...THESE FACTORS SHOULD MINIMIZE
   COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION.
   
   NEVERTHELESS...SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL SUFFICIENTLY STEEPEN LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNAL
   STORMS...MAINLY ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM SRN NEW ENG SWD INTO THE ERN
   CAROLINAS.  WHILE MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG
   DOWNDRAFTS IN SRN NEW ENG/NY/NJ...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
   MITIGATE SEVERE THREAT.  SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO
   2000 J PER KG/...MAY EXIST FARTHER S OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
   PLAIN. BUT WEAKER DEEP SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
   AREA WILL ALSO REMAIN BRIEF/ISOLATED.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE/REDEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS
   THIS AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG. 
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK
   WARM ADVECTION RESUMES DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING CO UPR LOW. 
   SETUP MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL AREAS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG
   STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. BUT
   WEAK WIND FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT STORM SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION...AND
   KEEP ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREATS LIMITED.  AN AREA OR TWO OF
   ELEVATED STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO
   FORM EARLY MONDAY OVER ERN NEB AND IA AS WARM ADVECTION FOCUSES N OF
   SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE NOW MOVING S ACROSS SD/MN.
   
   ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 08/21/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z