SPC AC 061252
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 AM CDT TUE SEP 06 2005
   
   VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW
   ANJ 25 WSW VOK 40 E SUX 40 NE HLC 15 WSW GCK 20 S LAA 35 ESE COS 30
   SE DEN 25 WNW FCL 50 SSW DGW 40 NE DGW 30 NNW CDR 45 W VTN 40 NE ANW
   20 SE BKX 30 NNE MSP 45 E ELO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 20 ESE PHX
   20 ESE INW 65 NW GUP 25 WSW 4BL 15 SSW U28 30 WSW VEL 10 ENE RKS 25
   N RIW 50 WNW COD 35 SW BZN 30 S HLN 35 ENE HLN 45 NW MLS 25 SE GDV
   50 SW MBG 55 ENE PIR 40 NW RWF 15 NNE STC 45 SSW HIB 30 E INL
   ...CONT... 15 S OSC 35 S MKE 20 W MLI 20 ENE FLV 30 NW PNC 15 N CDS
   20 ESE MAF 85 SSE MRF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT
   20 SE SAT 60 ESE AUS 40 NE HOU 35 SSW BTR 25 SSW GPT ...CONT... 40
   SE TLH 30 NW SAV 20 N CRE 10 SE ILM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
   
   ...SD/MN/WI...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
   EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH BAND OF WESTERLY MID LEVEL
   WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.  LEAD SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH NOW OVER MN WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   TODAY...WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AIR MASS WILL
   DESTABILIZE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN WI INTO SOUTHEAST SD. 
   DIURNAL HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP.  SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  LACK OF
   FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL
   DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...NEB/KS/CO/WY...
   WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEB INTO
   NORTHWEST KS AND NORTHEAST CO. LOW LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY WILL BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING
   IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. 
   AIR MASS IS ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
   DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED
   STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO IN FAVORABLE
   UPSLOPE REGIME.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
   THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST KS DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   
   OTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
   SURFACE THETA-E AXIS FROM NORTHEAST NM...ACROSS WESTERN KS...INTO
   SOUTHERN NEB.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN THIS
   REGION...SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY NON-SEVERE. 
   THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY OUTLOOKED LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES IN THIS
   AREA.
   
   ..HART/GUYER.. 09/06/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z