SPC AC 071248
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2005
   
   VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
   REJ 35 S DIK 15 SSW BIS 20 NNE HON 15 ESE YKN OLU 10 E HSI 45 NNE
   HLC 15 WNW GLD 15 W AKO 30 SW BFF 35 NE DGW 15 WSW 81V 30 NW REJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 30 NE AXN 15
   SSE STC 20 ESE EAU 25 ESE CWA 40 E ESC 15 S ANJ ...CONT... 15 E EFK
   10 SSW CAK 25 SSE SPI 25 ESE MKC 40 WNW END 15 NE CDS 35 E LBB 50 NE
   HOB 25 ENE CNM 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 75 S GBN 25 WNW PHX 10 SSW FLG
   60 NNW INW 55 ESE PGA 15 E PUC 25 S RKS 30 NNE RWL 35 SW SHR 30 SE
   3HT 75 WSW GGW 55 NNE GGW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTY 20 NW SAV
   35 NNE CRE 25 SE ECG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE DRT 45 WNW HDO
   25 N SAT 25 ESE AUS 35 WNW HOU 15 WSW GLS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
   AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...
   BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER EASTERN
   MT MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS
   EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD/NEB THIS AFTERNOON. 
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE
   NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S F AND AFTERNOON
   MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE 1500-2000 J/KG.  PRESENT INDICATIONS
   ARE THAT UVVS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME
   HEATING WILL SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CAP TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN SD.  THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
   NEB.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOWS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND
   DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
    DURING THE EVENING MAY ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY
   FOR SOME THREAT OF TORNADOES AS WELL.  STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN
   MCS AFTER DARK...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ...IA/IL/WI...
   WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS IA INTO NORTHERN IL
   THIS AFTERNOON.  RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING ALONG THIS AXIS WILL HELP
   DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
   THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE RATHER
   WEAK...SUPPORTING MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. 
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...FL/SC...
   TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TODAY OFF THE
   FL COAST.  JAX/CHS VAD PROFILES SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
   SHEAR IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  MARGINAL POTENTIAL
   EXISTS FOR BRIEF TORNADOES OR GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGER CELLS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ..HART/GUYER.. 09/07/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z