SPC AC 080605
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
   SUX 30 W RWF 30 S STC 25 WNW EAU 15 NE VOK 10 S MSN 25 E MLI 30 NW
   BRL 10 SSW DSM 45 NE OMA 30 NNE SUX.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
   CDR 45 ESE 81V 45 WNW Y22 20 W BIS 35 WSW JMS ABR 30 SSW 9V9 45 NNW
   MHN 35 W CDR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 30 NW VCT
   25 NW HOU 30 SSW LCH ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 20 S MGR 30 NNE AYS 45
   ENE SAV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 10 WSW IGM
   30 WNW SGU 35 WNW U24 45 W RKS 30 E RIW 40 WSW GCC 30 W MLS 35 E 3HT
   35 S 27U 40 ENE U31 60 ESE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SSW UKI ...CONT... 20 NNW
   4BK 15 NE RDM 45 WSW MSO 20 NNE GTF 60 NE HVR ...CONT... 30 NNE ELO
   50 WSW IWD 15 W AUW 40 NNW BEH 40 NE MTC ...CONT... BOS 25 ESE AVP
   40 ENE MKL 20 NNW ARG 10 NNE OJC 15 WSW HSI 30 NNW MCK 45 NNW LAA 15
   E CAO 45 SW TCC 30 SE ONM 35 SE DMN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   DAKOTAS...
   
   ...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY REGION...
   
   EARLY MORNING MCS CLUSTER WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SWRN MN INTO ERN SD.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE
   ESEWD WITHIN MEAN FLOW TOWARD PORTIONS OF SRN WI/NRN IL BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
   WILL OCCUR FROM NERN MO INTO NWRN IL AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ALLOWING
   LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. 
   WHETHER AN ARTIFACT OF EARLY MORNING DEEP CONVECTION...OR A LARGER
   SCALE DISTURBANCE ALOFT...IT APPEARS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE
   FROM THIS CLUSTER AS IT ADVECTS DOWNSTREAM.  IT APPEARS AN UPWARD
   EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS IS POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AS BOUNDARY
   LAYER WARMS.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGER STORM CLUSTER.
   
   
   ...DAKOTAS...
   
   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN
   DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALLOWING PARCELS TO
   REACH THEIR LFC SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.  IT APPEARS THE BLACK
   HILLS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION NEAR 00Z AS SFC
   BOUNDARY RETREATS NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
   TO SPREAD NEWD AFTER DARK AS LLJ STRENGTHENS...IN EXCESS OF
   40KT...OVER CNTRL SD.  MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME LARGE SCALE
   FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH MAY ENHANCE
   THE LIKLIHOOD OF CONVECTION LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
   STRONG VEERING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER YIELDING SFC-6KM VALUES ON THE
   ORDER OF 35-50KT.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY
   SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ..DARROW/GUYER.. 09/08/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z