SPC AC 161629
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005
   
   VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 20 S LRD
   ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP 45 SE MAF 40 SSW FTW 20 ESE TXK 60 ENE PBF 30
   E PAH 40 ESE IND 15 SE DTW ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 20 ENE BOS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 40 ENE BRD
   15 NW BKX 35 W YKN BUB 35 ESE SNY 40 ESE CYS 25 E EVW 10 NNE WMC 20
   NW SVE 30 ENE MFR 45 WNW RDM 40 SSW LWS 20 S GEG 40 S 4OM 50 NW 4OM.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...EAST TX INTO AL/TN...
   MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE UNITED
   STATES...WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TROUGHS OVER WA...NV...AND IND.  THE
   SYSTEM OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD DURING THE
   FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM IND ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN INTO
   EAST TX.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO
   RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG.  MID LEVEL WINDS THROUGHOUT THIS REGION
   ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
   GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.  AT THIS TIME...IT IS HARD TO ANTICIPATE WHERE
   MORE FOCUSED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE REPORTS MIGHT OCCUR...SO HAVE OPTED
   TO KEEP BROAD AREA FROM EAST TX INTO AL/TN IN LOW WIND
   PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...ND/MN...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER COASTAL WA...WITH
   WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALB/SASK. 
   MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT INCREASING UVVS AHEAD OF THESE
   FEATURES...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...WILL
   AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   ND/MN TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAP WILL LIMIT AREAL
   COVERAGE OF STORMS.  HOWEVER...STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST TX...
   UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER SOUTHWEST
   TX...WITH EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM MAF AREA INTO THE BIG BEND. 
   AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN
   STRONGEST CELLS.
   
   ..HART/GUYER.. 09/16/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z