SPC AC 171250
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2005
   
   VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
   HOB 30 SE CVS 45 NE AMA 50 WNW CSM 30 SW CSM 30 SSW LTS 50 NNE BGS
   10 E HOB 35 NNW HOB.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
   END 20 SSE P28 35 SW HUT 40 NNE ICT 45 E EMP 50 S OJC 20 NNW UMN 35
   S UMN 30 NNW FSM 30 SE END.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CTB 65 SW GGW
   15 S SDY 55 WSW DVL 35 W RRT ...CONT... 25 E MQT 15 SW DBQ 35 N COU
   25 SW UNO 25 W TXK 35 S ELD 15 WSW JAN 15 WNW SEM 15 WNW MCN 35 W
   CAE 40 E HKY 25 ESE EKN 15 NE ROC ...CONT... 60 NNW 3B1 25 SSE CAR
   ...CONT... 25 WSW DUG ABQ 40 SE RTN 25 WNW EHA 55 NW GCK 15 ESE IML
   30 SSE AIA 50 ESE DGW 35 SSW CPR 40 SSW BPI 50 NE WMC 55 SE LMT 45
   NNE RDM 15 SSW EPH 35 NNW 63S.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
   THE S PLAINS AREA OF W TX....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT FROM SRN KS/NRN OK
   EWD TO EXTREME SW MO....
   
   ...PLAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
   A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ORE/ID/NV THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
   TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHILE A SEPARATE NRN STREAM WAVE MOVES
   EWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO NW ONTARIO.  IN THE WAKE OF THE CANADIAN
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD FROM CENTRAL SD/NW MN
   TO CENTRAL NEB/NW IA BY EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE A LEE CYCLONE IN SD
   REFORMS SWD TO WRN KS. 
   
   SURFACE ANALYSES REVEAL A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK WARM FRONT
   ARCING FROM N TX INTO THE NW TX PANHANDLE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F S OF THIS BOUNDARY.  SOME OF THIS MOISTURE HAS
   ALREADY SPREAD NNEWD ABOVE THE SURFACE ON A SSWLY LLJ FROM W TX TO
   NEB...AND THE COMBINATION OF ADVECTION AND VERTICAL MIXING WILL
   ALLOW 60+ DEWPOINTS TO REACH AS FAR N AS NEB BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
    THE MOISTENING AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 85-95 F
   ALONG THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
   1500 J/KG NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER TO 3000 J/KG INVOF NW TX/THE TX
   PANHANDLE/SW OK. 
   
   DESPITE THE EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION...A RELATIVELY WARM ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
   PLAINS TODAY.  A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE S PLAINS AREA OF W
   TX WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO WEAKEN THE
   CAP ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH/SUBTLE CONFLUENCE AXIS...AND IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING
   NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO.  IF STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  
   
   LATER TONIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER
   THE S/SE KS AND N/NE OK AREA ON THE NOSE OF A 35 KT LLJ.  MUCAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT COULD
   SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 09/17/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z