SPC AC 200413
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
   
   VALID 200412Z - 211200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE
   TBN 55 WNW TBN 20 SSE SZL 30 NE SZL 30 NW SPI 20 S SBN 35 SSW JXN 20
   SSW ARB 30 SSE DTW 30 N MFD 20 WSW MFD 30 ENE DAY 45 S MIE MVN 35
   SSE VIH 10 SSE TBN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PRB 35 SSW FAT
   40 ESE BIH 50 NE DRA 45 ESE SGU 25 WNW ABQ 15 E 4CR 40 SW ROW 70 WNW
   MRF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW FMY 30 SSE VRB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK 10 SE RUT 10 WNW
   POU 40 NNW ILG 10 WNW SHD 20 WNW TYS 25 N MSL 30 WSW MEM 50 NNW LIT
   15 NW FYV 30 W JLN 30 NNE CNU MKC 30 WNW IRK 25 W CGX 45 NW BEH 20
   ENE MKG 25 SE TVC 25 WNW ANJ.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
   VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
   
   AMENDED TO ADJUST GENERAL THUNDER NWD IN CA
   
   ...OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED FAST MOVING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LINEAR MCS
   THAT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NRN
   IL SWWD INTO NCNTRL MO. ANOTHER SMALLER MCS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT AND IS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IND ATTM.
   
   THE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AS SHOWN BY RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO
   3000 J/KG RANGE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT SHOULD KEEP THE
   CONVECTIVE LINES GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH THE
   STORMS MOVING ACROSS SRN IL...SRN IND AND SW OH. MODERATE TO STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR AS SHOWN
   BY REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS DUE TO THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
   JET MAX EXTENDING FROM NRN MO ENEWD INTO SRN MI. THE SHEAR AND
   INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GOING
   THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
   BECOME LESS STEEP IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...SFC DEWPOINTS OF 64-72 F
   COMBINED WITH A FAST EWD STORM MOTION WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINES. HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG ASCENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
   PLACE.
   
   THE LINES ARE FORECAST BY THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS TO CONSOLIDATE AND
   MOVE SEWD ACROSS KY AND SRN OH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
   HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE DECREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING
   IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/20/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z