SPC AC 221250
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
   
   VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
   ERI 10 SW CMH 35 NW EVV 15 NNW TBN 35 S EMP 30 SE SLN 15 N MHK 35
   NNW IRK 20 NW MLI LNR 30 SW OSH 45 NNE MTC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML PSM 25 S
   BDL 25 WNW EWR HGR 30 NNE CHO 10 SE RIC 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 15 NNE
   GLS 20 SW ESF 35 W JAN 40 WNW CBM 25 N MSL 20 WNW BNA 30 NNW HOP 25
   NNE UNO UMN 20 W BVO 60 N CDS 40 SE ROW 35 SSE ELP ...CONT... 25 SSE
   YUM 65 E BLH 45 NE IGM 15 NE PGA 15 NNW CNY 40 WSW CAG 30 ENE CAG 25
   N LAR 45 W BFF 40 SW MHN 40 SSW SUX 25 ESE MKT 40 NNE GRB 20 WSW
   ANJ.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM
   ERN KS TO LOWER MI/NW OH....
   
   ...LOWER MO VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
   A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD
   TO QUEBEC...WHILE SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SPEED MAXIMA MOVE EWD FROM
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY IN A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. THIS
   FLOW REGIME WILL SUPPORT EWD DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM LAKE
   SUPERIOR THIS MORNING TO SRN QUEBEC...AND THE ENEWD MOTION OF A
   SECONDARY LOW FROM ERN IA THIS MORNING TO LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. 
   IN THE WAKE OF THESE LOWS...A SURFACE COLD FRONT / ALONG AN AXIS
   FROM CENTRAL KS TO CENTRAL WI AS OF 12Z / WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD TO THE
   SRN PLAINS/OH VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSES AND 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
   OF 65-70 F OVER MO/IL. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL
   WAA WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY
   ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA/NRN OH...POSSIBLY REACHING WRN PA/NY
   BY EARLY TONIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES IN
   EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG/  IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL
   STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
   SURFACE HEATING AND ASCENT WEAKEN THE CAP.
   
   THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IMMEDIATELY
   ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...MOST CONVECTION
   WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO MORE LINEAR MODES GIVEN THE MARGINAL
   VERTICAL SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED
   THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES TONIGHT.
   
   ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 09/22/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z