Sep 27, 2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 27 00:50:12 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050927 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050927 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050927 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050927 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 270046
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005
   
   VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 45 ENE PIE 10 NNW
   VRB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRE 25 ESE CLT
   25 E TRI 25 SSW CRW 25 S AOO 40 SE BUF 10 SSE ART 20 ENE MSS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW EKA 50 NE RBL
   20 SSW RNO 35 ESE BIH 40 E NID 40 SSE DAG 30 WNW SAN 60 WSW SAN.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NERN STATES...
   BROAD WARM CONVEYER BELT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
   ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN. 
   ABSENCE OF HEATING AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES KEPT INSTABILITY
   VERY LOW AND TSTMS ISOLD.  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
   MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID-UPPER OH VLY ATTM.  ASSOCIATED COOLING IN
   THE H7-H5 LAYER SPREADING ATOP RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE HAS BEEN
   FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
   FROM ERN NY INTO CNTRL PA.  THE COLUMN WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
   WITH TIME THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES...ESPECIALLY
   ALOFT AND COULD SUPPORT EVENING TSTMS DOWNSTREAM FROM ABOUT THE NYC
   AREA NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.  VERY STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS EXIST
   ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS /ALB...IAD IN PARTICULAR/
   SHOW A STABLE LAYER WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL. IT IS STILL
   POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS /POSSIBLE
   DAMAGING WINDS/ TO THE SURFACE FOR A FEW HOURS YET THIS EVENING...
   BUT OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/27/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z