Sep 27, 2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Tue Sep 27 00:50:12 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 270046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 45 ENE PIE 10 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRE 25 ESE CLT 25 E TRI 25 SSW CRW 25 S AOO 40 SE BUF 10 SSE ART 20 ENE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW EKA 50 NE RBL 20 SSW RNO 35 ESE BIH 40 E NID 40 SSE DAG 30 WNW SAN 60 WSW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN STATES... BROAD WARM CONVEYER BELT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN. ABSENCE OF HEATING AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES KEPT INSTABILITY VERY LOW AND TSTMS ISOLD. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID-UPPER OH VLY ATTM. ASSOCIATED COOLING IN THE H7-H5 LAYER SPREADING ATOP RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM ERN NY INTO CNTRL PA. THE COLUMN WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH TIME THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES...ESPECIALLY ALOFT AND COULD SUPPORT EVENING TSTMS DOWNSTREAM FROM ABOUT THE NYC AREA NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. VERY STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS EXIST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS /ALB...IAD IN PARTICULAR/ SHOW A STABLE LAYER WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS /POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/ TO THE SURFACE FOR A FEW HOURS YET THIS EVENING... BUT OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL. ..RACY.. 09/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |