SPC AC 011605
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005
   
   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
   FLV 30 ESE OJC 45 NW SGF 25 WSW UMN 30 E MKO 15 E DUA 30 WSW DUA 15
   SE SPS 25 SE LTS 25 ENE CSM 30 W END 35 ESE P28 30 ENE HUT 15 SE MHK
   10 SSW FLV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW FCA 25 NNW 3TH
   10 W PUW 30 N ALW 40 SSE EPH 45 SSE 4OM 45 NNE 4OM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MFE 10 S ALI
   35 SE SAT 35 E AUS 60 WNW LFK 20 NNE GGG 45 WSW TXK 20 SSW PRX 15 E
   DAL 20 SW SEP 40 NE SJT 55 WNW ABI 30 NNE CDS 45 E LBL 40 WSW RSL 35
   NNW CNK 25 SW OMA 10 ESE FOD 30 N CID 35 WNW SPI 30 ENE MVN 25 N HOP
   45 SE BNA 20 NE ANB 30 SSW AUO 45 S CSG 55 SSE MCN 40 WNW SAV 35 SSW
   FLO 35 SE FAY 60 E ECG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM 50 NW EAT
   20 N DLS 50 W RDM 35 SE OTH 55 WNW 4BK.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
   CENTRAL/ERN OK...SE KS...AND WRN MO....
   
   ...OK/KS/MO AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
   THE COMPACT MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL OK/KS THIS MORNING WILL
   LIFT NEWD TOWARD MO/IA AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE
   TO AMPLIFICATION OF BOTH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NWRN
   STATES AND THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST.  
   
   THE LOOSE COMMA CONFIGURATION OF STORMS FROM EXTREME N TX INTO ERN
   OK IS BEING FED BY MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG /FOR PARCELS NEAR 850
   MB/ AND A 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ.  THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE A MARGINAL
   HAIL THREAT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...AFTER WHICH TIME THE LLJ AND THE
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF PRONOUNCED
   SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE HEIGHT RISES/WEAK
   SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL OK BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS QUITE
   UNCERTAIN WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
   OUN/FWD...ALONG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RUC...SUGGEST
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F TO MINIMIZE CIN.  AFTERNOON
   MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40
   KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ALONG REMAINING
   SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE PROBABLE THIS EVENING
   INTO TONIGHT FROM N/NE OK INTO SE KS WHERE A STRENGTHENING LLJ
   FOCUSES WAA ALONG AND N OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT.  THIS CONVECTION
   SHOULD THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING NEWD INTO WRN MO. 
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE
   STORMS.
   
   ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 10/01/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z