SPC AC 041629
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005
   
   VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
   OMA 10 SE CNK 15 S RSL 50 N DDC 45 SE GLD 35 ENE GLD LBF 30 NW BUB
   30 ENE BKX 25 NE STC 30 NW IMT 25 SSE IMT 20 SE LSE 15 E OMA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 20 W GBN
   PHX 70 WNW SAD 70 NE SAD 20 E GNT 30 ESE FMN 35 NNE CEZ 40 NNE 4BL
   30 NE U24 50 WSW OGD 40 SSW PIH 25 NE IDA 40 NNE JAC 30 W SHR 45 ESE
   4BQ 10 NNE Y22 55 WNW JMS 100 NNE DVL ...CONT... 80 E OSC 35 NNW FWA
   15 WNW MTO 30 NNE ALN 40 SW UIN 40 NE SZL 35 WSW SZL 20 S CNU 50 NNE
   CSM 15 N LBB 70 W MRF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DRT 10 NE HDO 30
   NW LCH 45 ESE MCB 25 SE CSG 10 ENE CAE 25 NE RDU 30 W ORF 50 SSE
   WAL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NRN KS
   NEWD TO SRN MN AND NRN WI....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL
   MOVE ENEWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT.  IN
   ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL WAVE...A SURFACE CYCLONE IN ERN UT WILL
   REFORM E OF THE CO ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN MOVE NEWD
   TOWARD MN OVERNIGHT ALONG A STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE
   NOW IN PLACE FROM ERN CO ACROSS NEB TO SE MN AND NW WI.  THIS
   BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE THE
   PRIMARY FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
   REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7
   C/KM AND RATHER MOIST PROFILES WITHIN A REMNANT PACIFIC MOISTURE
   PLUME ACROSS THE PLAINS.  SURFACE HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS AND
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG AND SE OF THE FRONT...FROM NRN KS NEWD ACROSS SE
   NEB/IA/SE MN/WRN WI.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE FRONT. 
   HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT
   BY THE MODEST LAPSE RATES...THE STRONGER MID-UPPER WINDS REMAINING
   ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY ANA
   FRONTAL TYPE FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
   COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
   
   SCATTERED WARM SECTOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   IA/MN/WI IN THE MOIST PROFILES...THOUGH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA TODAY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
   BEST.  MORE CONCENTRATED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG AND JUST N OF
   THE SURFACE FRONT FROM NEB INTO SW MN BY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE A FEW DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EVENTS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN THE
   REGION OF STRONG ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHILE OTHER
   STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES ACROSS KS.
   
   ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 10/04/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z