Oct 6, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 6 12:42:14 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051006 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051006 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051006 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051006 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 061239
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2005
   
   VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW TUS 25 ENE PHX
   65 WNW GUP 25 N CEZ 20 WSW GUC 40 ESE GUC 45 NW TAD 45 WSW CAO 20
   SSE TCC 35 NW LBB 55 SSW CDS 40 ESE SPS 30 W PRX 40 E DAL 20 NNE ACT
   35 W TPL 50 NNW SAT 40 NE COT 15 NE CRP 55 E CRP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MSS 10 SW LBE 20
   N EKN 15 W SHD 30 N RIC 35 ENE SBY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW HUM 25 NE MCB
   40 E TUP 25 NNE BWG 30 SSW JXN 35 NNW APN.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   BANDS OF MOIST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING T.D. TAMMY
   CONTINUE TO ROTATE NNEWD ACROSS SERN GA AND PORTIONS OF SC THIS
   MORNING.  IN ADDITION LARGER UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
   NERN GULF/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD WITH THESE TWO FEATURES THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN
   A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  OVERALL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   MARGINAL...AND SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RATHER LOW.
    HOWEVER...VWPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CHS AND CAE INDICATE LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG WITH 30-40 KT ELY WINDS AROUND 1
   KM.  COMBINED WITH LOW LCL/S...RESULTANT BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT REMAINS NON-ZERO AND WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES TODAY AS POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOP.
   
   ...AZ/WRN NM...
   SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE NM-AZ BORDER
   TODAY. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SPARSE ALONG AND JUST
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THIS REGION...COMBINATION OF FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
   AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE.  ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON
   WV IMAGERY APPROACHING THE REGION.  WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
   SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH BRIEF/MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 10/06/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z