SPC AC 091239
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 AM CDT SUN OCT 09 2005
   
   VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE
   ELP CNM TCC CAO 50 SSW LAA 35 NW EHA 20 SSW LBL 45 E AMA 35 WSW CDS
   60 NW ABI 35 E SJT 30 SSW DRT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BWG 10 NNE BNA
   25 N HSV 50 S MSL 20 SW CBM 15 NW GLH PBF 50 NE LIT 10 SW POF 15 NW
   PAH 20 W BWG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW DUG 25 W SAD
   60 ENE PHX 10 S PGA 35 SSW VEL 20 NE CAG 30 WSW SNY 30 NNE IML 35 NE
   MCK 10 N OKC 25 SSW FTW 15 ESE TPL 45 SE AUS 30 N NIR LRD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SRQ 30 N PIE 25
   NNW GNV 15 WSW AYS 35 NE ATL 55 S TYS 25 SW TRI 50 S PSK 10 SSE RDU
   40 N EWN 45 ENE ECG.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM AND
   WEST TX...
   
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
   AZ/NM THIS MORNING.  EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX NOW NEAR TUS IS EXPECTED
    TO ROTATE INTO WEST TX LATER TONIGHT. STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THIS
   FEATURE...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WILL POSE A THREAT
   OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
   NM/WEST TX.
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH
   OF NM. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA WILL POSE A RISK
   OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
   AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS.  
   
   SEVERAL HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW AIR MASS OVER WEST AND
   SOUTHWEST TX TO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES
   UP TO 1000 J/KG/.  MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY
   LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST NM/SOUTHWEST
   TX...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAF/SJT THROUGH THE EVENING. 
   STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   QUITE STRONG...BUT LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LCL LEVELS
   INDICATE ONLY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..HART/JEWELL.. 10/09/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z