Oct 15, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 15 16:20:13 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051015 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051015 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051015 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051015 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 151617
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2005
   
   VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE ISP 10 ESE EEN
   25 S RUT 20 NE ALB 45 WSW ALB 20 SW BGM 20 NNE BFD 30 W BUF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE IPL 20 ESE TRM
   25 SSE DAG 35 WNW NID 45 W BIH 40 SSE EKO 40 SSE EVW 35 NE GJT 35 NW
   TAD 40 ENE TAD 25 S LAA 40 NNE EHA 60 S LBL 55 NNW CDS 55 E LBB 35
   SSE P07.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NORTHEAST...
   STRONG...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH PRONOUNCED HEIGHT
   FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. 
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS ILL-DEFINED LATE THIS MORNING
   AS PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE PATTERN IS STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW CENTER
   PERSISTING OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  APPEARS PRIMARY SURFACE
   TROUGH IS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NY...WITH AREA OF
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINING BEHIND THIS FEATURE UNDER MID LEVEL
   COLD POCKET.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   WITH ISOLATED...LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING WRN INTO
   CENTRAL/NRN NY.  STRONGER CORES MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
   HAIL...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. 
   
   THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE LIMITED EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 
   HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND
   SHOULD ALLOW AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO OCCUR WITHIN BROADER
   CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW IN PLACE.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST...
   VERY STRONG NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DIG SSEWD INTO
   CENTRAL CA THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO CLOSE INTO AN UPPER LOW
   OVER SRN CA DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NNEWD
   AS AN OPEN-TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
   BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AZ/NM
   TODAY WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
   SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/NWRN TX AND THE PANHANDLE REGION THIS
   EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.  OTHER STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AS
   STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX
   SPREADS INTO THE REGION.
   
   ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 10/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z