Oct 15, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Oct 15 16:20:13 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
|
|||||||||||
SPC AC 151617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE ISP 10 ESE EEN 25 S RUT 20 NE ALB 45 WSW ALB 20 SW BGM 20 NNE BFD 30 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE IPL 20 ESE TRM 25 SSE DAG 35 WNW NID 45 W BIH 40 SSE EKO 40 SSE EVW 35 NE GJT 35 NW TAD 40 ENE TAD 25 S LAA 40 NNE EHA 60 S LBL 55 NNW CDS 55 E LBB 35 SSE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NORTHEAST... STRONG...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS ILL-DEFINED LATE THIS MORNING AS PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE PATTERN IS STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW CENTER PERSISTING OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. APPEARS PRIMARY SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NY...WITH AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINING BEHIND THIS FEATURE UNDER MID LEVEL COLD POCKET. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED...LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING WRN INTO CENTRAL/NRN NY. STRONGER CORES MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE LIMITED EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SHOULD ALLOW AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO OCCUR WITHIN BROADER CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW IN PLACE. ...SOUTHWEST... VERY STRONG NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DIG SSEWD INTO CENTRAL CA THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO CLOSE INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NNEWD AS AN OPEN-TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AZ/NM TODAY WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/NWRN TX AND THE PANHANDLE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREADS INTO THE REGION. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 10/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |