Oct 19, 2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 19 00:40:14 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051019 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051019 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051019 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051019 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 190037
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0737 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2005
   
   VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE YUM 50 W EED
   55 NW P38 40 W PUC 50 W EGE 30 WSW COS LBL 50 SSW GAG 35 SSW LBB 10
   NE INK 65 WSW MRF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N EYW 45 NE PBI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E OSC 60 NNE MTC
   50 NW MKG EAU 30 NNW MSP STC BRD HIB 75 E ELO MQT 55 ENE APN 55 E
   OSC.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...AZ/NM...
   SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM AND
   FAR W TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS AN ATTENDANT CLOSED LOW ALOFT
   TRACKS ACROSS AZ TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z WED.  THIS
   INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS/DEEP SHEAR VALUES IS PROGGED
   TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FOR A FEW
   MORE HOURS /UNTIL AROUND 03Z/ ACROSS ERN AZ/NM AND FAR W TX. 
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL FAVOR SPLITTING
   STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING
   THIS EVENING GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
   COOLING/DECREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  THESE TRENDS WARRANT A
   LOW END SEVERE THREAT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A CATEGORICAL
   OUTLOOK.
   
   ..PETERS.. 10/19/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z