Oct 19, 2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Wed Oct 19 00:40:14 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 190037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE YUM 50 W EED 55 NW P38 40 W PUC 50 W EGE 30 WSW COS LBL 50 SSW GAG 35 SSW LBB 10 NE INK 65 WSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N EYW 45 NE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E OSC 60 NNE MTC 50 NW MKG EAU 30 NNW MSP STC BRD HIB 75 E ELO MQT 55 ENE APN 55 E OSC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM AND FAR W TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS AN ATTENDANT CLOSED LOW ALOFT TRACKS ACROSS AZ TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z WED. THIS INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS/DEEP SHEAR VALUES IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS /UNTIL AROUND 03Z/ ACROSS ERN AZ/NM AND FAR W TX. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL FAVOR SPLITTING STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING/DECREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THESE TRENDS WARRANT A LOW END SEVERE THREAT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 10/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |