Oct 28, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Oct 28 16:12:23 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 281609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DUG 45 WNW SAD 35 SSE PRC 40 E LAS 50 N DRA 25 SE U31 15 SSE EKO 15 S BYI 10 WSW LND 30 SW CPR 30 S LAR 20 NNW LVS 25 W CNM 65 W MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE BLI 45 NNW DLS 35 WSW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SOUTHWEST SPEED MAX NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS AFTN...WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOCUSED ACROSS NRN AZ/SRN UT. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WRN ALBERTA BY SATURDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE PLAINS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS. CHANCES FOR THUNDER TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ROCKY MTNS AND NW. ...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES... ELEVATED INSTABILITY /PER 500MB TEMPS NEAR -18C ON THE 12Z SLC SOUNDING/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH UPSTREAM IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ISOLD LIGHTNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT APPEAR OVERLY FAVORABLE EVEN WITH MODEST SFC WARMING INTO THE MID 50S. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... LATEST LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE RECENT ACTIVITY NW OF SLE. MAINLY ISOLD SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING MOVING AWAY BY EARLY EVENING. ..TAYLOR/MCCARTHY.. 10/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |