Oct 28, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 28 16:12:23 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051028 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051028 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051028 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051028 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 281609
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1109 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2005
   
   VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DUG 45 WNW SAD
   35 SSE PRC 40 E LAS 50 N DRA 25 SE U31 15 SSE EKO 15 S BYI 10 WSW
   LND 30 SW CPR 30 S LAR 20 NNW LVS 25 W CNM 65 W MRF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE BLI 45 NNW DLS
   35 WSW ONP.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SOUTHWEST SPEED MAX NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
   ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS AFTN...WITH THE LARGE SCALE
   FORCING FOCUSED ACROSS NRN AZ/SRN UT. ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE
   SYSTEM AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
   WRN ALBERTA BY SATURDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
   PLAINS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS.
   CHANCES FOR THUNDER TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ROCKY MTNS AND NW.
   
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY /PER 500MB TEMPS NEAR -18C ON THE 12Z SLC
   SOUNDING/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH UPSTREAM IMPULSE
   MAY SUPPORT ISOLD LIGHTNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   DO NOT APPEAR OVERLY FAVORABLE EVEN WITH MODEST SFC WARMING INTO THE
   MID 50S.
   
   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   LATEST LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE RECENT ACTIVITY NW OF SLE. MAINLY
   ISOLD SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. SFC COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
   MOVING AWAY BY EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..TAYLOR/MCCARTHY.. 10/28/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z