Oct 29, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 29 12:06:13 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051029 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051029 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051029 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051029 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 291202
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0702 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005
   
   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BLI 35 NNW PDX
   25 WNW ONP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ELP 20 W ABQ
   50 SW CEZ 15 ENE 4HV 45 E ELY 10 N ENV 30 SW MLD 45 WNW PIH 35 SW
   SMN 35 N SMN 70 ESE LWT 25 NNE BHK 35 WSW Y22 50 ENE CDR 15 ESE VTN
   35 NNE HON 30 SSW AXN 10 NE MSP 45 E MCW 15 S DSM 60 NW SGF 30 N MKO
   30 WNW CHK 65 NW ABI 25 WNW DRT.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW BROAD UPPER
   TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
   GENERALLY LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT ACROSS THE
   SOUTHWEST STATES AND HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN
   PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NM INTO WESTERN KS. PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   CAPE /400-800 J/KG/ WILL PROVIDE A THREAT OF HAIL IN STRONGER
   CELLS...FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
   CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN STORMS QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
   ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY.
   
   ..HART/GUYER.. 10/29/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z