Oct 29, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Oct 29 12:06:13 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 291202 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BLI 35 NNW PDX 25 WNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ELP 20 W ABQ 50 SW CEZ 15 ENE 4HV 45 E ELY 10 N ENV 30 SW MLD 45 WNW PIH 35 SW SMN 35 N SMN 70 ESE LWT 25 NNE BHK 35 WSW Y22 50 ENE CDR 15 ESE VTN 35 NNE HON 30 SSW AXN 10 NE MSP 45 E MCW 15 S DSM 60 NW SGF 30 N MKO 30 WNW CHK 65 NW ABI 25 WNW DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND HIGH PLAINS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NM INTO WESTERN KS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE /400-800 J/KG/ WILL PROVIDE A THREAT OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN STORMS QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THESE REGIONS. ELSEWHERE...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. ..HART/GUYER.. 10/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |