Oct 30, 2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 30 01:00:14 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051030 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051030 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051030 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051030 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 300057
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005
   
   VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 S MRF 30 S ROW 50
   S LVS 60 NNE SAF 40 SSE GUC 25 ESE GJT 10 SSE U28 25 NE MLF 60 E ELY
   15 SSW ENV 60 NE ENV 45 ESE MLD 40 WSW BPI 30 S JAC 20 WSW JAC 15 W
   IDA 55 WNW IDA 20 W MQM 35 SSW BZN 40 SE 3HT 20 WSW MLS 30 N 4BQ 30
   NNE GCC 10 NE DGW 30 SSE DGW 15 S CYS 30 SE CYS 30 WSW SNY 30 E SNY
   30 NE MHN 40 SSW 9V9 20 NE HON 40 N RWF 10 NE MSP 45 E MCW 35 WSW
   LWD 15 SW JLN 15 ENE TUL 10 SE CHK 15 WSW ABI 25 WNW DRT.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE QUICKLY EWD INTO
   THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING...ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING ZONAL
   FLOW ALOFT.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WAS
   SUPPORTING TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...PRIMARILY
   ACROSS WRN KS .  THOUGH SLY FLOW HAS BEEN STRONG AHEAD OF THESE
   FEATURES...MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN MEAGER AND IS RESULTING IN
   MUCAPES AOB 600 J/KG PER 00Z DDC/AMA RAOBS.  STEEPER MID-
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD INTO KS HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE
   FOR ISOLD STRONGER UPDRAFTS IN AN OTHERWISE MEAGER BUOYANCY
   ENVIRONMENT.  
   
   STRONGER UVVS/LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS
   THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE SWLY FLOW
   INCREASES.  CONVECTION...CONSEQUENTLY...SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP
   ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM MN SWWD INTO KS AND OK.  IT
   APPEARS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS THROUGH LATE EVENING
   WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST ATOP NRN EDGE OF
   THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS.
   
   ..RACY.. 10/30/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z