Nov 3, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 3 15:52:13 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051103 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051103 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051103 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051103 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 031549
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0949 AM CST THU NOV 03 2005
   
   VALID 031630Z - 041200Z.
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   FAST ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NATION THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...THOUGH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE WEST WILL
   LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE WLY FLOW
   ALOFT WILL RESULTING IN A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS EAST OF
   THE ROCKIES...WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE PACIFIC NW...MOIST STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
   STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS
   WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
   LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO GIVEN NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...LESS
   THAN 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE
   DEPTH OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND INHIBIT MOST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
   
   ..IMY.. 11/03/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z