SPC AC 051616
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1016 AM CST SAT NOV 05 2005
   
   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
   CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX BWG 10 E MEM BVX 25 NNE FLP 35 WSW COU 35
   SSE OTM 30 NE DBQ 40 NW MKG 15 NNW MTC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 N SEA
   15 S OLM 20 SSE AST 70 NW ONP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW PUB 35 E GUC 25
   NNW GUC 30 WSW EGE 35 ESE CAG 30 S LAR 20 S CYS 35 SSE IML 40 E GLD
   45 NNW GCK 25 ENE LAA 20 NW PUB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ART 30 E ROC 35
   ESE BFD 20 WNW AOO EKN 45 NW TRI 35 ESE CHA 25 NNE TCL 10 SE GWO 25
   NNE ELD 25 ESE DEQ 25 SE RKR 20 N FSM 20 ENE JLN 45 NE CNU 20 WSW
   TOP 25 SSE BIE 20 SE LNK 15 NNE OMA 20 SSE FRM 30 ESE EAU 55 NNW TVC
   50 N APN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS INTO
   THE GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...MID WEST...
   POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
   AMPLIFY AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID MS
   RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.  PRIMARY MID LEVEL JET WITH H5 WINDS FROM
   75-85 KT WILL REMAIN ALONG BACK-SIDE OF THIS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
   DAY.  HOWEVER...MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL DEVELOP/SHIFT TO THE FRONT
   SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER IL/IND TONIGHT AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER
   SERN KS WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS
   MO...WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW DEVELOPS
   INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
   QUICKLY ESEWD AS LOW CENTER SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
   AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LATER
   TODAY/OVERNIGHT.  OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE
   FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SYSTEM BECOMES
   INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STRONGEST SHEAR OVERSPREADS THE
   WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVED MOISTURE FIELDS
   INDICATE STRONG CAP AND RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT RISK
   FACTORS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
   
   WITH STRONG INVERSION LAYER AROUND H85 THIS MORNING AT LZK AND
   SGF...EXPECT WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LOW
   CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER AS DEEP ASCENT
   INCREASES...EXPECT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER INTO PORTIONS OF ERN IA/IL. 
   ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR MODERATE MUCAPE WITHIN THIS REGION...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
   CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THUS...LARGE HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANY STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
   
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL 22Z-00Z AS CAP WEAKENS
   OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL.  INITIAL
   DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES SHOULD ACTIVITY REMAIN
   SURFACE-BASED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER EVOLVE INTO OR BE OVERCOME
   BY SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG COLD
   FRONT/LEADING EDGE OF STEEP ASCENT PLUME DURING THE EVENING.  BROKEN
   SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/LEWP STRUCTURES WILL SUSTAIN AT
   LEAST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT RACES EWD INTO THE OH RIVER
   VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.  WIND DAMAGE COULD BECOME
   WIDESPREAD GIVEN SIGNIFICANT WINDS /50+ KT/ JUST OFF THE SURFACE. 
   COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE SHOULD SUSTAIN
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THIS LINE AS WELL.  TORNADO THREAT AFTER
   DARK MAY BE MITIGATED BY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER DUE TO NOCTURNAL
   COOLING.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS WILL
   LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST A RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z