SPC AC 052002
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005
   
   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
   CLE 10 NW CMH 25 NNW LEX 30 WSW BWG 45 WSW MEM 30 NE LIT 40 S FLP 25
   WSW JEF 15 W CID 40 S LSE 20 SSW MTW 15 NNW MTC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 N SEA
   15 S OLM 20 SSE AST 70 NW ONP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX 35 SW PUB
   60 SW COS 50 S 4FC 25 WNW DEN 30 E FCL 35 NE AKO 35 SSE IML 30 WSW
   HLC 25 ENE GCK 35 NNE EHA 35 SSE LHX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ART 30 E ROC 35
   ESE BFD 20 WNW AOO EKN 45 NW TRI 35 ESE CHA 25 NNE TCL 10 SE GWO 25
   NNE ELD 25 ESE DEQ 25 SE RKR 20 N FSM 20 ENE JLN 45 NE CNU 20 WSW
   TOP 25 SSE BIE 20 SE LNK 15 NNE OMA 20 SSE FRM 30 ESE EAU 55 NNW TVC
   50 N APN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS/ OH VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DIGGING SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS WITH ADDITIONAL...LOWER AMPLITUDE
   DISTURBANCE/JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA.  THIS LEAD
   SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
   AND TONIGHT WHILE MAIN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES
   NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
   MORNING.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WAS CONSOLIDATING E OF MKC AS OF
   19Z WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH W-CNTRL IL
   INTO SRN LOWER MI.  LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
   CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW PRESSURE NEWD TO VICINITY OF
   CHICAGO BY 06/06Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL LOWER MI SUNDAY
   MORNING.  WITH THE NEWD PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND APPROACH OF
   UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SURGE EWD
   THROUGH THE MID MO AND LOWER OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
   
   ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS
   MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN
   WI.  IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD
   IMPULSE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
   /REF. 18Z DVN SOUNDING/ ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT.
   
   THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL N OF
   RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IL AND SRN WI...BEFORE WEAKENING AS
   THEY MOVE PROGRESSIVELY N OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS.
   
   ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG COLD
   FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS THIS EVENING AS
   STRONG...DEEP-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION.  18Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND MORE SO SGF
   INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS DEVELOPING
   WARM SECTOR WHICH MAY SERVE TO DELAY STORM INITIATION THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF MODERATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. 
   CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE
   TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY
   WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWP STRUCTURES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z