SPC AC 100102
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0702 PM CST WED NOV 09 2005
   
   VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
   WAL DCA 40 SSW MRB 25 SE BKW 25 SW BLF 45 ESE JKL 20 NE LOZ 45 NNW
   JKL 30 ESE UNI 20 E HLG DUJ 35 WNW ELM 20 W ITH 20 NE BGM 15 NNE MSV
   30 SE JFK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 25 E BML
   10 SSE AUG 20 S EPM ...CONT... 40 S HSE 45 SSW FLO 15 WSW CAE 40 NW
   AGS 20 WSW AHN 25 W ATL 30 SW ANB 35 WSW TCL 30 NE JAN 35 SE MLU 30
   ENE IER 35 E SHV 25 WNW ELD HOT 30 NNE LIT 30 ENE JBR 30 WNW BWG 25
   NE LEX 30 W HLG 15 NE BFD 45 WNW ART.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW SFO 30 S SCK
   20 WSW BIH 25 NNW EDW 40 NNE SBA 25 SE VBG.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO
   THE MID ATLANTIC...
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC...
   INTENSE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WITH A
   POWERFUL COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND
   THEN SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
   CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT WITH 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-200M
   ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS THROUGH
   THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN INTENSE DYNAMICS OF THE AMPLIFYING
   SYSTEM...THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD
   ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ AND
   DELMARVA BY DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL TRAIL INLAND AND SWWD FROM ERN
   NC TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY MORNING.
   
   COMPLICATED SEVERE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EAST OF
   THE ADVANCING FRONT. CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR WAS DEPICTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS...BISECTING PA FROM NE TO SW. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
   SQUALL LINE WAS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE BUT APPEARS TO BE
   ADEQUATELY WARM AND MOIST TO SUSTAIN ROBUST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE VERY
   STRONG DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
   LIFT. EVENING RAOBS FROM PIT...WAL...AND IAD ALL INDICATED SLIGHTLY
   GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAN EARLIER SHORT-TERM MODEL
   GUIDANCE...IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING MEAN LAYER FLOW OF 40-70KT.
   GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE TO PERSIST AND
   CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS ERN PA/NJ AND PARTS OF THE DELMARVA
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SEVERE WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL THREAT
   WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED ALONG PARTS OF THE LINE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
   
   ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
   CURRENTLY...FRONTAL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO WEAKEN WITH HEIGHT FROM
   ABOUT WV SWWD ACROSS TN. HOWEVER...LIFT ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION
   OF THE BOUNDARY...COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS...SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS THAT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF
   HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ...SERN VA TO ERN NC...
   COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP INTO THESE AREAS BY EARLY MORNING AND MODEL
   GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME CHANCE OF A SQUALL LINE ACROSS SERN VA AND
   ERN NC BEFORE 12Z. WIND FIELDS AND STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT FAST
   LINE MOTION WITH SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. MIXED SIGNALS IN
   AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RELATIVELY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD
   BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/10/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z