Nov 12, 2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 12 20:18:13 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051112 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051112 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051112 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051112 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 122016
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005
   
   VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
   FLV 20 ESE YKN 20 NNW BKX 20 NNE RWF 35 SE MSP 30 WNW LSE 45 NNW DBQ
   25 NW MLI 25 SSE BRL 45 WSW FAM 30 SSE BVX 25 ENE ELD 50 WNW POE UTS
   20 SSE ACT 10 W DAL 35 NE TUL 25 ENE CNU 20 W FLV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 25 NE COT 25
   NNW HDO 15 WSW FTW 20 E OKC 30 ENE CNK 10 WSW OLU 35 E ONL 20 ENE
   VTN 35 NNW VTN 25 NNE PIR 15 N INL ...CONT... 35 NW CLE 45 ESE BWG
   40 E TUP 30 N HEZ 45 NW LFT 55 SW 7R4.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FAR SERN SD/SRN MN SWD
   TO NERN TX...
   
   ...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY...
   EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER
   FAR NERN NEB WITH THE TRAILING DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT MOVING
   QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ERN NEB...CENTRAL/ERN KS AND OK.  SURFACE LOW IS
   PROGGED TO DEEPEN FURTHER AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /180-200 METERS/
   SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH THE LOW REACHING CENTRAL MN
   THIS EVENING AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SUNDAY.
   
   STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAD CONTINUED TO
   ADVECT A NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO
   THE MID 50S FROM SERN SD TO CENTRAL IA...AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE
   KS/MO BORDER REGION.  GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...WARM SECTOR IS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SRN MN AIDING IN THE THREAT FOR SURFACE
   BASED STORMS.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
   AND ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS ERN NEB/KS
   WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG... AND UP
   TO 1500 J/KG OVER NRN TX.  18Z SOUNDINGS AT TOP/OMA BOTH INDICATED A
   LOW LEVEL CAP. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CAP IS CONTINUING
   TO WEAKEN AS STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING/PV ADVECTION SPREADS RAPIDLY
   ENEWD AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION
   OF A 70-90 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
   FURTHER WEAKENING OF THIS CAP COMBINED WITH THE NARROW AXIS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE IN FAR ERN
   NEB/WRN IA/SERN SD AND THEN SWD INTO ERN KS BY 20-21Z. STORM MODE
   IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR GIVEN DEEP UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
   AND SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DRY LINE/COLD
   FRONT. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO
   THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AS
   INDICATED ON THE 18Z TOP/OMA SOUNDINGS.
   
   ONCE STORMS INITIATE...THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FAIRLY
   QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS SRN MN/IA AND INTO MO.  THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY
   THIS EVENING SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
   WITH EWD EXTENT AS COLD FRONT/FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVE AWAY
   FROM STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATER THREAT THIS EVENING GIVEN SPEED OF SYSTEM
   AND CONTINUATION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR LOW
   TOPPED STORMS. THIS THREAT MAY REACH INTO PARTS OF WI/IL.
   
   ...ERN OK/WRN AR/NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN TX/NWRN LA...
   VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU FIELD DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO
   NORTH CENTRAL-NERN OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS ALONG/E OF
   THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
   ABOUT THE NEAR TERM SEVERE THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION /SPCSWOMCD/ 2404.
   
   LATER THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
   WITH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TENDING TO DECREASE.  HOWEVER...
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF
   NERN TX TO THE ARKLATEX REGION FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MOVE SEWD.
   
   ..PETERS.. 11/12/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z