SPC AC 131943
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2005
   
   VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW PSX 15 SSW LRD
   ...CONT... 35 SE 6R6 40 NE SJT 20 W GYI 25 NNW MLC 15 ESE FYV 30 WNW
   ARG 20 WSW SDF 30 E DAY 30 NE CMH 25 N PKB 45 S HTS 30 W RMG 45 NNW
   MOB 60 SSW BVE.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD ONTARIO/
   QUEBEC...LEAVING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL UNITED
   STATES.  SRN PORTION OF TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD INTO MS/SRN AR AND ACROSS ERN/SRN TX
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM MORNING CONVECTION
   OVER AR/NRN MS...NOW EXTENDED FROM SRN AL WNWWD TO SRN AR.  
   
   ...TX/AR/LA/MS...
   EARLY AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED CU/TCU AND A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER NRN
   LA/ERN TX.  DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM TX TO THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND RICH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/.  THREAT FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG
   UPPER FORCING...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES. 
   HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   SUGGEST A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
   AROUND SUNSET...WITH ANY ACTIVITY WEAKENING QUICKLY AFTER DARK.
   
   ..PETERS.. 11/13/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z