Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 151950
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM POF 20
   NW SLO 20 WNW DNV 40 SSE SBN 35 ENE FWA 30 SSE DAY 30 SE BWG 15 E
   MSL 40 SSW CBM 30 SSE GLH PBF POF.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLV 30
   NE BMI 20 S CGX 20 NE BEH 20 E FNT 35 NE CLE 40 WSW UNI 35 NE HSV 25
   ENE MEI 10 SE PIB 40 SSW PIB 40 NNW BTR 30 NE IER 10 ESE ELD 20 N
   ARG BLV.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW
   ROC LBE BLF LGC 30 SE MOB 40 SW BVE ...CONT... 30 S GLS 30 NNW PSX
   55 SSW CLL 15 SSE CLL 10 NW LFK 15 E SHV LIT SPI 25 WNW MMO 30 E JVL
   10 ENE MBL 65 E APN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW LRD 35 NNW LFK
   30 SSE TXK 30 WSW BVX 20 WNW SPI 35 NW BRL 10 ESE VOK 40 SSW ESC 35
   NNW PLN 15 E ANJ ...CONT... 50 NNE ROC 50 E BFD HGR 20 S DCA 35 S
   NHK 25 ENE EWN 10 NNE ILM FLO CAE 40 WSW AGS 35 ENE ABY 35 SSE AAF.
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AR...NRN
   MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL...IN...SWRN OH AND WRN KY...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA
   SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI AND THE WRN
   SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE WRN GULF COAST...
   
   ...E TX/LWR MS VLY NEWD INTO OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS...
   SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR STL AT 19Z AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
   DEEPENING AND LIFTING THIS SYSTEM RAPIDLY NEWD TO NEAR CHI BY
   00Z...AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARM
   FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN IL/IN INTO OH AND WILL
   LIFT NWD TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT...FROM ERN MO SWWD
   INTO ERN/SRN TX...RACES EWD THROUGH THE OHIO/TN AND LOWER MS
   VALLEYS.
   
   IN THE WARM SECTOR...A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   PRESENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
   TO MID 60S. AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO MO THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A  110
   KT MID LEVEL JET MAX. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME
   NEGATIVELY TITLED AND STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
   THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...SOME
   TORNADIC...WERE ONGOING FROM ERN MO/IL SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC
   HEATING AND THE STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. VERY STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES FROM  1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD FAVOR NUMEROUS
   SUPERCELLS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND 1KM SHEAR FROM 25-40 KT INDICATES TORNADOES ARE ALSO
   LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN AR/WRN TN NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING/ENVIRONMENTAL
   WINDS...THE QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND VERY STRONG PRESSURE
   FALLS...SUGGEST THAT LONG TRACK AND STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REFER TO TORNADO
   WATCHES...864...865...866 AND 867.
   
   AS THE LOW LIFTS NWD THIS EVENING...THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD INTO
   THE NRN HALF OF THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
   CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.
   
   OTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
   AND TONIGHT ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT ACROSS SERN TX/LA/ERN AR AND MS. LONG AND SLIGHTLY CURVED
   HODOGRAPHS PLUS LACK OF STRONG LINEAR ASCENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
   SUPERCELLS WITH LONG TRACK TORNADOES. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO
   SUPPORT SMALL SCALE LEWPS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   WHILE THE MS/OH VLY STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
   SEVERAL BROKEN SEGMENTS/SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS 
   TONIGHT...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND FORCING SUGGEST THE STORMS MAY
   REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE. AS A RESULT...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE UPR OH VLY AND THE
   WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
   
   ..IMY.. 11/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z