SPC AC 160045
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CKV 30
   E OWB 30 NNW SDF 55 W LUK 20 W LUK 35 SE LUK 30 N LOZ 45 SW LOZ 30
   WNW CHA 25 NW HSV 45 NNW MSL CKV.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
   HOP 25 ENE OWB 25 SW MIE 25 WSW TOL 35 SSE DTW CLE 15 SSE ZZV 20 W
   TYS 20 NE TCL 10 SSW CBM 20 WNW TUP 10 SW HOP.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
   GLS 30 ENE HOU 25 S POE 35 ENE MLU 20 WNW UOX 45 NE MKL LAF SBN 10
   NNE AZO 20 SE MBS 55 ENE BAX ...CONT... 45 N ROC 25 ESE LBE 30 SSW
   PSK 15 NNE CSG 15 N CEW 35 SSW PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MFE 40 ESE LFK
   25 NNW MLU MEM 25 SSE MTO 35 NNW DNV 20 SSE RAC 35 NNW MBL 25 NNW
   PLN 30 E ANJ ...CONT... 50 NNE ROC 50 E BFD HGR 20 S DCA 35 S NHK 25
   ENE EWN 10 NNE ILM FLO CAE 40 WSW AGS 35 ENE ABY 35 SSE AAF.
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER MIDDLE TN...CNTRL
   KY INTO SERN IND...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER ERN IND...MUCH OF
   OH//KY/TN...NERN MS AND NRN AL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL/ERN
   GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ***SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN
   VALLEYS THIS EVENING***
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP NETWORK
   INDICATE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE UPPER
   MIDWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100-110 KT JET STREAK FROM NRN OK/SRN KS
   NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE
   LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER NRN IL/SRN WI WITH ASSOCIATED WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO CNTRL NY. 
   TRAILING COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED FROM THIS SWD THROUGH THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
   
   ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
   
   COMPLEX...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING
   FROM IND/OH SSWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ARE
   MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS BOWING AND
   LEWP STRUCTURES.  CURRENTLY MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EXIST
   ACROSS SRN KY AND WRN/MIDDLE TN WHERE SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED
   SUPERCELLS ARE PRESENTLY BEING OBSERVED.  HERE...IMMEDIATE
   DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z BNA SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
   FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH AOA 400
   M2/S2. CORRIDORS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
   LIKELY TONIGHT AS CONVECTIVE MODE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE
   LINEAR.
   
   FARTHER TO THE N OVER ERN IND INTO OH...CONVECTIVE MODE HAS
   TRANSITIONED FROM SUPERCELLULAR TO MORE LINEAR OVER THE PAST HOUR
   WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
   WEAK INSTABILITY.  GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   UPPER TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE
   WIND FIELDS...THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND ENHANCED DAMAGING
   WIND CORRIDORS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EWD.
   
   OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF COAST...00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
   JAN AND BMX INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER
   WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 13 G/KG.  DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS MOISTURE WAS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  THOUGH
   SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS ERN MS
   INTO WRN AL REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH 00Z BMX
   SOUNDING INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 250 M2/S2. 
   THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/16/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z