Nov 23, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Wed Nov 23 16:18:12 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 231615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MTC 40 SE BAX 30 ESE OSC 10 S APN 35 W APN 20 W HTL 20 S RQB 15 S GRR 15 W AZO BEH 30 WNW BEH 35 ENE MKE 10 SE MTW 50 NE GRB 15 ENE IMT 45 NW IMT 30 SSE IWD 15 E ASX 25 S GNA 50 ENE GNA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 WNW JHW 20 NNW FKL 25 NNW YNG 15 E CLE 30 WSW CLE 45 E TOL 40 SE DTW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY COLD UPPER LOW CHARACTERIZED BY -40 C 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SINK SWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...SETTING UP STRONGLY CONVECTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER MI. ELSEWHERE AROUND THE NATION....CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. ...GREAT LAKES / MICHIGAN... PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAINLY AFTER 00Z...ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI AND EXTENDING INTO NRN MI LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 700 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -25 TO -30 C RANGE...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 35-45 KT MEAN WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1KM. LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM IN THE MID 40S F. GREATEST THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITHIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR MARQUETTE SEWD INTO FAR NRN/NWRN MI...AND AFTER 06Z...WHEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AROUND LAKE SHORES. ..JEWELL/HALES.. 11/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |