Nov 23, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 23 16:18:12 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051123 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051123 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051123 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051123 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 231615
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005
   
   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MTC 40 SE BAX
   30 ESE OSC 10 S APN 35 W APN 20 W HTL 20 S RQB 15 S GRR 15 W AZO BEH
   30 WNW BEH 35 ENE MKE 10 SE MTW 50 NE GRB 15 ENE IMT 45 NW IMT 30
   SSE IWD 15 E ASX 25 S GNA 50 ENE GNA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 WNW JHW
   20 NNW FKL 25 NNW YNG 15 E CLE 30 WSW CLE 45 E TOL 40 SE DTW.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERY COLD UPPER LOW CHARACTERIZED BY -40 C 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
   SINK SWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THU MORNING. AT
   THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   AND GREAT LAKES...SETTING UP STRONGLY CONVECTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
   BANDS OVER MI. ELSEWHERE AROUND THE NATION....CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
   WILL BE NON-EXISTENT.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES / MICHIGAN...
   PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF LAKE
   EFFECT SNOW BANDS MAINLY AFTER 00Z...ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI AND
   EXTENDING INTO NRN MI LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE 700 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -25 TO -30 C
   RANGE...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 35-45 KT MEAN WIND PROFILES IN
   THE LOWEST 1KM. LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM IN
   THE MID 40S F. GREATEST THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITHIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
   BANDS WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR MARQUETTE SEWD INTO FAR NRN/NWRN
   MI...AND AFTER 06Z...WHEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AROUND
   LAKE SHORES.
   
   ..JEWELL/HALES.. 11/23/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z