Nov 25, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Nov 25 16:28:14 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 251627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DRT 45 SW JCT 55 ENE JCT 10 SSW CLL 30 SE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 45 ESE OLM 50 WNW RDM 45 NE SAC 50 SE UKI 80 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP 25 NNE INK 45 SSW LTS 30 NE ADM 20 NNW DEQ 35 ENE TXK 20 NE LCH 55 SSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS S TX.... ...S TX THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT... AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN...WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID 60 DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST SWD INTO THE EXTREME W CENTRAL GULF. THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF MID MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AND APPROACH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND GREAT BASIN. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BRO/CRP SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG WHEN MODIFIED FOR SURFACE HEATING AND GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...WHILE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UPSTREAM OVER NRN MEXICO. THE DESTABILIZATION OVER S TX...COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM W TO E THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. INITIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT INVOF THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD OVERNIGHT AS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE RESIDUAL COASTAL FRONT/TROUGH OVERNIGHT. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |