Nov 28, 2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 28 09:26:13 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20051128 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051128 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051128 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051128 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 280555
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
   TOI 20 W SEM 15 SSW TCL 35 S MSL 35 NNE HSV 10 W CHA 30 ESE CHA 25
   NNE ATL 35 ENE CSG 30 SSE CSG 25 N DHN 15 SSE TOI 35 WSW TOI.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW
   HUM 35 NE MCB 40 ESE GWO 40 N TUP 35 W HOP 35 SW HUF 20 SSE VPZ 20
   SSW AZO 20 WSW ARB 45 SSE DTW 10 E ZZV 50 SSW BLF 45 WNW CAE 30 NNW
   AYS 40 WSW CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 25 ENE GLH
   35 SW PAH 15 SE PIA 35 SE DBQ 35 ESE RHI ANJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ROC 35 SSW ROC
   20 E AOO 15 W RIC 20 ENE GSB 45 SSW HSE.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND GA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
   STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
   
   ...GULF COAST STATES/TN AND OH VALLEYS...
   A POWERFUL UPPER-LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS
   THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. ON THE SOUTH END OF THE SYSTEM...THE
   ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS
   THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS
   THE REGION AND AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF A
   COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM FAR ERN IL EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
   WRN KY INTO WCNTRL TN AND WCNTRL MS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE. INITIALLY THE THREAT
   SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY BUT AS
   INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE MORNING HOURS...REGENERATION OR
   REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE APPEARS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM FORECAST
   INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL
   AL BY AFTERNOON SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
   IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 60 KT WHICH
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   LIKELY IN THE LINE OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
   THE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MIDDLE TN EXTENDING SWD ACROSS AL
   INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE GREATEST SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD EXIST
   OVER CNTRL AND ERN AL INTO WRN GA WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILE COMBINATION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ALSO SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA
   SUGGESTING TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS. A FEW STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN
   ADDITION...ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOW ECHOES THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE THREAT
   GRADUALLY DECREASING AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY.
   
   FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN LESS SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F
   AS FAR NORTH AS LOWER MI SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
   COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
   HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS
   MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES/SCHNEIDER.. 11/28/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z