Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 281235
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005
   
   VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
   AUO 10 NNW GZH 60 SE MEI 25 NE MEI 10 S CBM 15 WSW MSL 30 NNW HSV 20
   SSW CHA 15 W ATL 25 SSW AUO.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
   HUM 15 WSW TUP 40 WNW HOP 15 SSE DNV 20 S SBN 25 SSE JXN 50 WNW CLE
   10 NNE ZZV 25 WNW CRW 20 NNW AVL 50 NE MGR 45 WNW CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE VRB 35 WSW APF
   ...CONT... 30 ESE 7R4 15 NNE GWO 35 SW PAH 20 SSW PIA 15 NE ALO 40 W
   AUW 50 ENE ANJ ...CONT... 60 WNW MSS 35 SSW ROC 20 E AOO 15 W RIC
   GSB 25 SE ILM.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF AL AND A
   SMALL PART OF WRN GA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   STATES NWD INTO SRN GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL IL SWWD
   INTO CENTRAL MS EARLY THIS MORNING.  ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF
   PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MO/AR/LA. 
   LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS EXTREME
   MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREAD A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL REMAIN MOIST INTO THE TN/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS WITH SURFACE
   DEW POINTS AOA 60F BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  NORTH OF THE OH RIVER
   VALLEY...DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY MOIST WITH VALUES
   WELL INTO THE 50S F.  THEREFORE...GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND STRENGTH
   OF FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE...LARGE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
   FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY...
   CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL MS WITH
   ONGOING NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION...WHILE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS
   IS OCCURRING OVER S-CENTRAL LA.  ADDITIONAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
   REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
   ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL. 
   EXPECT STORMS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/DIMINISHED THROUGH THE
   MID MORNING GIVEN MODEST CAP PRESENT ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
    HOWEVER WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STEADILY
   INCREASE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER A LARGE AREA
   FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   COLD FRONT.  INCREASING SHALLOW CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
   THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE...SHOULD BECOME
   SURFACE BASED AND DEEPEN LATER THIS MORNING.  EXTREME SHEAR IN PLACE
   SUPPORTS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ONCE ACTIVITY
   BEGINS TO ROOT INTO 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS.  THIS INCLUDES THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   O-1 KM SRH WILL EXCEED 350 M2/S2 OVER A LARGE AREA.  SMALL LEWPS AND
   BOW ECHOES MAY EVOLVE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ALONG APPROACHING
   COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. 
   OVERALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AFTER DARK AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLS...THOUGH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   WITH STRONGER CELLS OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...IND/OH INTO KY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
   WITH INCREASED HEATING THIS MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
   REGENERATE/DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AS IT SHIFTS
   EWD INTO IND/WRN KY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  EXTREME WINDS JUST OFF
   THE SURFACE SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BECOME PRONOUNCED AS
   STORMS ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE.  DESPITE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS...THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
   EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST OVER THIS REGION INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ..EVANS/BRIGHT.. 11/28/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z