SPC AC 291256
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2005
   
   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
   SSI 30 NNW AYS 20 NE AND 40 S PSK 15 WNW HGR 40 SE CXY 10 SW NHK 45
   SE ECG 25 NE HSE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ART 25 SSE SYR
   20 ESE POU 15 SSW GON 50 SSW BID ...CONT... 40 SSE AAF 20 SW MGR 25
   WSW AND 50 W BKW 35 SSE CAK 55 NNW ERI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CLM 10 SSE OLM
   20 NNW PDX EUG 25 NNE OTH 45 WSW OTH.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM DELMARVA INTO THE
   CAROLINAS/SERN GA...
   
   ...CENTRAL NY/PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA...
   DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT
   ALONG PRIMARY SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS/COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD
   ACROSS THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE FL BIG BEND REGION. 
   THIS RAISES SOME QUESTION REGARDING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY AS
   THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES EWD AND MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHORE
   THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS UNSEASONABLY
   MOIST WITH MID 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM FL/SERN GA NWD INTO
   CENTRAL NC...MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO CENTRAL NY.  IN
   ADDITION...SHEAR VALUES REMAIN QUITE STRONG ACROSS ALL THE AFFECTED
   REGION.  THE AXIS OF MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD LIFT
   GRADUALLY NWD AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT
   REGION/ERN NC THROUGH THE DAY.
   
   THOUGH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE MITIGATED BY PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
   AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...GRADUAL SURFACE WARMING INTO THE 70S
   WILL GENERATE MARGINAL TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY THE
   MID TO LATE MORNING.  LESSER HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL
   OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE.  MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING AT CHS
   INDICATES SBCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF
   75F...WITH 70F TEMPERATURE AT GSO YIELDING SIMILAR SBCAPE.  IN
   ADDITION...EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEARER THE
   APPALACHIANS...WITH O-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AT GSO THIS
   MORNING.  WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEARING 70F FROM CENTRAL
   SC INTO SWRN VA...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THIS
   REGION BY MID MORNING. THREAT SHOULD THEN SPREAD EASTWARD AND
   NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL
   SEVERE THREAT SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS PA AND NY WHERE SURFACE DEW
   POINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY.  SHEAR WILL
   LESSEN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
   SPREADS EAST OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER...LOW AND DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   SMALL LINES AS ACTIVITY INCREASES AND MOVES ACROSS SERN GA/SC LATER
   THIS MORNING.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE FROM
   DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
   ONCE HEATING ALLOWS STORMS TO ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY INTO
   THE CAROLINAS/CENTRAL VA.
   
   ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/29/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z