Dec 21, 2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Wed Dec 21 19:58:14 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 211954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW UIL 20 NNW HQM 25 E ONP 30 NNE 4BK 35 E ACV 10 SE MHS 70 NW RNO 10 ENE TVL 55 WNW BIH FAT 40 SW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES AS LA/NWRN GULF TROUGH TURNS EWD TO CROSS MS DELTA AND ERN GULF COAST REGIONS. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OVER GULF...AND REINFORCEMENT OF CONTINENTAL RIDGING OVER GULF COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FOR THUNDER OVER LAND. FARTHER W...MEAN TROUGH OVER NERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING NEWD/ENEWD TOWARD W COAST AND BC. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS IT APCHS MEAN RIDGE POSITION. PORTIONS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH - NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN CA/ORE...WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. ...W COAST SATES... FLARE-UP OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES PAST 1-2 HOURS IS RELATED TO MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY PASSES...EXPECT RELATIVE LULL BEFORE WAA PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING AND INLAND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKLY CAPPED AND WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG MOST AREAS. WITH BOTH TSTM REGIMES...TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT THROUGH SIERRA NV RANGE AND INTO NV...BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AND MORE STABLE INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS. ..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |