Dec 21, 2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 21 19:58:14 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051221 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051221 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051221 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051221 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 211954
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CST WED DEC 21 2005
   
   VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW UIL 20 NNW HQM
   25 E ONP 30 NNE 4BK 35 E ACV 10 SE MHS 70 NW RNO 10 ENE TVL 55 WNW
   BIH FAT 40 SW MRY.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES AS LA/NWRN GULF TROUGH TURNS
   EWD TO CROSS MS DELTA AND ERN GULF COAST REGIONS.  ASSOCIATED SFC
   CYCLOGENESIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OVER GULF...AND REINFORCEMENT
   OF CONTINENTAL RIDGING OVER GULF COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT
   LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FOR THUNDER OVER LAND.  FARTHER W...MEAN TROUGH
   OVER NERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING NEWD/ENEWD
   TOWARD W COAST AND BC. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN
   CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER
   PERIOD AS IT APCHS MEAN RIDGE POSITION.  PORTIONS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH
   - NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN CA/ORE...WILL
   MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...W COAST SATES...
   FLARE-UP OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES PAST 1-2 HOURS IS RELATED TO
   MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
   ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  AFTER
   THIS ACTIVITY PASSES...EXPECT RELATIVE LULL BEFORE WAA PLUME
   ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING AND INLAND
   TONIGHT.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
   ASSOCIATED WEAKLY CAPPED AND WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS...WITH MUCAPES
   GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG MOST AREAS.  WITH BOTH TSTM REGIMES...TSTM
   POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT THROUGH SIERRA NV RANGE
   AND INTO NV...BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AND MORE STABLE INFLOW
   LAYER AIR MASS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z