SPC AC 271136
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 AM CST TUE DEC 27 2005
   
   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSL 25
   WNW BHM 45 SW SEM 40 NW MOB 10 E MCB 40 WNW JAN 30 SW UOX 45 SSE MKL
   MSL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE GLS 10 WNW LCH
   15 SW ELD BVX 30 ESE FAM 10 S SLO 30 WNW SDF 30 W CHA 10 W MGM 55 S
   PNS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF MS AND WRN AL...
   
   CORRECTED FOR  REMOVAL OF AREA 1
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES PROGGED TO
   CONTINUE EWD AND INTENSIFY WITH A CLOSED LOW INTO SRN MO LATER
   TONIGHT. STRONG MID/UPPER JET WILL ROTATE EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS
   TODAY AND BE POSITIONED ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY/GULF STATES BY END OF
   PERIOD.
   
   SURFACE LOW SWRN KS MOVES TO VICINITY BOOTHEEL OF MO BY 12Z WED WITH
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW CENTER SWD VICINITY MS
   RIVER INTO GULF.
   
   STRONG MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
   ACCOMPANY JET MAX ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. GULF MOISTURE
   RETURNING ATTM THRU ERN TX WITH NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS ONSHORE.  GREATEST
   CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE QUALITY OF AIR
   MASS AVAILABLE LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
   COOLING AND UPWARD MOTION WITH TROUGH/WIND MAX ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
   
   EXAMINING OBSERVED DEWPOINTS WRN GULF REVEALS BARELY 60F HOWEVER
   WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MID 70S...COULD SEE LOW/MID 60
   DEWPOINTS ONSHORE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY LATER TONIGHT. NAM SEEMS A
   LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
   COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS LA
   INTO MS AFTER 06Z...COULD REALIZE MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 1000 J/KG.
   
   WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR FROM 25-30KT COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 50-60
   KT AS STRONG JET ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z...THERE WILL BE
   MORE THAN SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS.  CAP
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY 06Z FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   MOST LIKELY VICINITY ERN MS AND THEN SPREADING INTO WRN AL.
   
   THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT SEEMS SUFFICIENT...EVEN WITH SOME
   UNCERTAINTY ON THE QUALITY OF THE AIR MASS TO UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT
   RISK FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
   
   ..HALES.. 12/27/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z