Feb-17-2005 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 17 17:31:34 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050217 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20050217 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 171726
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CST THU FEB 17 2005
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W UKI 35 NE SAC 45
   NNE BIH 30 SSE CDC 25 NNW DRO 10 W 4SL 80 NNW SVC 25 SSE SAD 20 SW
   FHU.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY 2
   PERIOD LARGELY IN PART TO WEAKENING OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF
   THE CA COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NEWD
   FROM BASE OF THIS LOW INTO THE DESERT SW WHILE STRONG NRN BRANCH
   FEATURE RETROGRADES SWWD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. FARTHER E...
   DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
   MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WITH FAST WNWLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN
   THIRD OF THE NATION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL
   BUILD SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SERN STATES WHILE LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO
   INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...CA INTO THE SWRN DESERTS...
   WHILE ANTECEDENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIR
   MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT APPEARS THAT A
   FEW TSTM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
   WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CA ON FRIDAY AND INTO AZ FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER
   MORE ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER N INTO THE SIERRA
   NEVADA RANGE ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS WHERE
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY STEEPER.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/17/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z