Mar- 8-2005 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 8 17:31:36 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050308 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20050308 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 081728
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S VCT 65 NNE VCT
   50 SW LFK 50 NW POE 25 NE ESF MCB 35 SSE GPT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 NE MIA.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   PERSISTENT NW FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
   LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY ACROSS THE GULF STATES DURING THE DAY2
   PERIOD.  HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING ACROSS TX ALONG SECONDARY FRONTAL
   SURGE WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE LAPSE RATE PROFILE FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
   DESTABILIZATION BUT LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
   AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   
   INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS
   SOUTH FL WILL INCREASE ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. 
   THE MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HELPFUL IDENTIFYING ANY MEANINGFUL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WSWLY FLOW.  ALTHOUGH
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY MIGHT EXIST ABOVE
   850MB TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/08/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z