SPC AC 130705
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 AM CST SUN MAR 13 2005
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE 7R4 30 WNW LFT
   50 SSE SHV 15 E TXK 10 N GLH 30 ESE TUP 45 ENE HSV 10 SSE HSS 20 NNE
   HSE ...CONT... 30 N MLB 30 SW ORL 15 NW PIE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM 60 NW GBN
   35 WNW PRC 25 SW INW 50 S GUP 40 SSE SAF 45 E ROW 30 SE MAF 20 SSW
   FST 55 SW MRF.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FLAT WSWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE U.S. IS PROGGED TO
   BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY 2 FORECAST
   PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO
   AZ/NM AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.  DOWNSTREAM PATTERN FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS EWD TO THE MID-SRN ATLANTIC STATES WILL EVOLVE INTO A BROAD
   RIDGE.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM SC SWWD TO
   SERN LA AND THE NWRN GULF AT 12Z MONDAY.  THE ERN PORTION OF THIS
   BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD TOWARD NRN FL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
   ESE ACROSS THE ERN STATES.  
   
   ...SRN GA AND NRN FL INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...
   WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK EWD FROM THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY TO ACROSS THE SERN STATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN
   ATTENDANT 65 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS NRN FL. 
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND
   NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN AL TO NC...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND OFFSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON.  SWLY LOW LEVEL
   FLOW FROM THE GULF ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL WILL ADVECT BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   PROGGED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.  ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CURRENTLY
   LOCATED OVER LOWER MS VALLEY SHOULD BE OVER THE SERN STATES BY
   MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP MUCH OF THIS REGION
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...WEAK UVVS WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SURFACE BASED STORMS...WHILE THE MODELS SUGGEST A GREATER CHANCE FOR
   POST-FRONTAL STORMS.  NONETHELESS...WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
   
   ...SWRN STATES...
   A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM E-W ACROSS NRN AZ/NM AT 12Z
   MONDAY WILL MOVE SWD ON MONDAY AS THE UPSTREAM GREAT BASIN TROUGH
   TRACKS TOWARD THIS REGION.  STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
   INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND OROGRAPHIC
   FORCING WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD
   FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS...
   BUT TOO WEAK FOR A SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   THE WRN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY MOVE SWD DURING THE
   DAY...BUT THEN RETREAT NWD LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER
   THE WRN GULF BACK TO SLY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM
   TROUGH.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL ASCENT/WAA NORTH OF THE RETREATING
   BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/13/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z