SPC AC 240612
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ABQ 55 NNE SAD
   30 W PHX 25 NNW EED 45 NNE DRA 30 NW ELY 55 NE ENV 30 SW BPI 40 WNW
   RWL LAR 30 ESE DEN 30 SSE PUB 40 S RTN 25 SSW ABQ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS 25 SW VCT
   45 S SAT 30 NNW HDO 20 N SJT 60 S CDS 15 SSW LTS 15 NE ADM 20 ENE
   FSM UNO 20 WNW HUF 25 NNE DAY 15 SSE HLG 15 S ACY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 45 NW CEW
   35 SSE CSG 10 NNW MCN 40 ESE ATL 10 W ATL 30 SSE BHM 10 ENE MEI 30
   SW LCH.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...ARKLATEX...
   A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE REGION AND
   SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EXTENDING NEWD TO THE
   MID-MS VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
   REGION AS AN UPPER-TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THIS
   WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
   NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 26/00Z SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPING
   INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT CONVECTION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET DUE TO
   THE APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
   TRIGGER ELEVATED STORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL OR NE
   TX BY 06Z. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED DUE TO A
   NEWD MOVEMENT OVER THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
   06Z IN NE TX SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM.
   THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY BE
   ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ...SRN APPALACHIANS/COASTAL PLAINS...
   A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN
   MTNS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM INITIATION NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
   00Z. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE SRN VA AND NRN NC
   COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C WHICH SHOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND
   GFS SOLUTIONS ARE VERY DIFFERENT CONCERNING INSTABILITY BY EARLY
   EVENING FRIDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THE THREAT WILL BE
   CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
   INTO THE REGION.
   
   ...CNTRL FL...
   SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
   DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD
   INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z IN CNTRL FL SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND
   PROFILES WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STORMS SPREAD EWD. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/24/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z