SPC AC 290700
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
   MSN 10 SW MTW 10 NE MBL HTL 25 NNE MBS 20 NNE ARB 15 SSE FWA 20 E
   LAF 35 NNW DNV 35 SSE MMO 20 SE JVL 35 E MSN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 25 NNW UCA
   40 S ROC 25 SSE DUJ 20 SE MGW 35 WSW BKW 70 NNW AHN 35 W MCN 10 WSW
   DHN 30 NNW MSY 25 W BTR 20 SSE POE 40 NNE POE 45 SSE HOT 25 W MEM 40
   WNW DYR 10 WSW PAH MVN 20 ENE ALN 40 N COU 30 NE STJ 50 ENE OMA 30
   SSE MKT 70 S DLH 75 NNW CMX ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 40 ESE Y22 50 E CDR
   25 N MCK 25 ESE SLN 30 N JLN 45 SSW JLN 45 NE OKC 45 E DHT 20 WNW
   4SL 80 S 4BL 25 WNW 4HV 20 SW EVW 35 ESE IDA 25 WSW BZN 25 WSW GTF
   50 WNW CTB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE
   MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE UPPER AIR FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST FROM THE ROCKIES TO 
   MIDWEST AND SOUTH THIS PERIOD AS A PAIR OF VIGOROUS DISTURBANCES
   TRANSLATE THROUGH A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S.
   THE LEADING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LWR CO RIVER
   VLY...WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD FROM MO/IA TO MI DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS
   SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE MID/UPR MS
   VLY...AND A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE UPR MS
   VLY...MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE
   STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW IN
   RESPONSE TO THE IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
   FROM THE GULF COAST INLAND ACROSS ARKLATEX AND LWR MS VLY. THIS
   EXTENSIVE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY FROM LATE
   WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   DEVELOPS ESEWD FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...
   INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER WLY
   JET ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT HIGHER
   THETA-E AIR MASS NWD FROM THE LWR OH VLY TO IL/IND. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOW TO MID 50S F ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND COLD
   FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SERN WI SWD TO THE IL/IND
   BORDER AREA. MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP
   CYCLONE TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SFC HEATING AND MODELS ARE
   IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG) 
   WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER SYSTEM (120M 500MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER)
   WILL AID TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WEST OF LAKE
   MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW ORIENTED ALONG THE
   FRONTAL ZONE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WOULD SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED FROM NRN IND INTO LWR
   MI. WHILE PATTERN SUGGESTS LINEAR STORM MODE WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING
   THE PRIMARY THREAT...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WOULD SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL
   AND/OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF
   CONVECTION
   
   ...LWR MS VLY TO TN VLY...
   STRENGTHENING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE EDGE OF CAPPING
   INVERSION IS FCST TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY
   BY LATE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN A MOIST AND MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
   MORNING AS DEEP LAYER SLOPED ASCENT INTENSIFIES IN THE RIGHT
   ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER JET. FCST MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW HAIL STORMS. HOWEVER...
   GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG UPSTREAM CAP...AND OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
   TIMING OF INITIATION WILL CHOOSE TO KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOW AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/29/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z