SPC AC 051736
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT TUE APR 05 2005
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
   BVE 30 ESE MCB 30 NNW LUL 35 NNW MEI 25 WSW TCL 25 ENE 0A8 35 WNW
   AUO 20 ENE TOI 10 WSW DHN 10 SE PFN.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
   7R4 10 NE TXK 25 S UMN 20 NW TBN 40 SW BLV 10 NW HOP 45 ENE RMG 15 N
   MCN 35 NNE MGR 25 S TLH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE GLS 35 N HOU
   30 NNW CLL 15 NNW ACT MWL 35 WNW CSM 40 NNW GAG 15 N DDC 50 ENE HLC
   35 E BKX 10 WSW BRD 20 NE ELO ...CONT... 15 NNW ART 35 NNE UCA 15
   WNW ALB 20 WNW BAF BID ...CONT... 25 SSE NEL 15 W CXY 25 NE PKB 20
   SE HTS 15 NNE HSS 15 E CAE 40 SE CTY.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
   LOUISIANA...SRN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM
   LA/AR AND SRN MO TO WRN/MIDDLE TN....AND WRN GA...
   
   ...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
   WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE/ACTIVE FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST
   ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO VERY STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
   APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ACT TO DISLODGE THE DEEP
   CYCLONE NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE SRN PLAINS. DUE TO THE HIGHLY
   AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE SRN PLAINS SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
   WILL EXTEND WELL NORTH OF THE PARENT CIRCULATION...AND WILL BE
   SITUATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A WEAK
   SFC WAVE/LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY
   WEDNESDAY EVENING.
   
   MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE DEEP CYCLONE
   TRACKING ESEWD FROM OK TO THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE DAY/EVENING.
   WITH 50-70KT MID LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF MID LEVEL
   LOW OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION...STRONG CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL
   FLOW FROM OFF THE NRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MOIST INFLOW TO
   AN ADVANCING SEVERE LINEAR MCS FROM THE LWR MS VLY/DELTA REGION EAST
   ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...MS DELTA TO WRN FL PNHDL...
   THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG A SUITE OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THAT
   STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
   JET...COUPLED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND WARM AIR
   ADVECTION...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE ARCING FROM
   ERN AR ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
   INITIALLY...UPSTREAM AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL ONLY BE
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE GIVEN CURRENT RESIDUAL CP AIR MASS OVER THE
   REGION. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
   MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AND STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE NRN
   GULF...ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. GREATEST
   OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
   GULF COAST WHERE MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INLAND...AND A
   FEW HOURS OF MARGINAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE.
   
   LINEAR STORM MODE AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR MOST LIKELY
   GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXISTING SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO THE
   REGION FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ACTIVITY
   WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
   ACROSS EXTREME SERN LA AND SRN MS DURING THE MORNING. THESE HIGHER
   SRH VALUES ARE PARTLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
   AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 50KT AOB 850MB.
   GIVEN THIS PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN
   THE LINE...OR DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LINE WITHIN RECOVERING WARM
   SECTOR...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z