SPC AC 091731
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2005
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
   TYR 15 ENE DAL 45 NNW DAL 25 WSW PNC 25 NNW PNC 50 NNW BVO 10 SSW
   CNU 15 SSW JLN 20 S FSM 25 W TXK 35 NNW GGG 25 NNW TYR 40 WNW TYR.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N
   VCT 35 WNW AUS 10 ENE BWD 25 NW FSI 35 NW CSM 45 SSW LBL 10 NW EHA
   40 ENE LAA 20 WNW HLC 40 N GRI 25 WNW FSD 20 NE BKX 35 WNW RWF 25 E
   RWF 15 WSW CID 40 SSW UIN 25 SW PBF POE BPT HOU 55 N VCT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 30 S OLM 10 NNE
   SLE 50 ESE OTH 10 SSE 4BK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ELO 30 SSW MBL
   40 SSW JXN 35 E MIE 30 W LUK 45 NE OWB 10 SE PAH 25 W MKL JAN BTR 30
   SSE 7R4 ...CONT... 45 SW PSX 10 WNW NIR 30 SE HDO 20 NNW HDO 45 ENE
   SJT 40 SE LBB 30 S 4CR 75 ESE SOW 35 ENE SOW 75 WNW GUP 35 NE CNY 35
   NNE CAG 15 ESE CYS 35 NNW AKO 40 WNW IML 15 SSE MHN 20 N ABR 75 N
   GFK.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   PLAINS...OZARKS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   A STRONG UPPER-LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS
   A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE
   UPPER-LOW WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD ASCENT OVER A MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.
   
   A SFC LOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS SE CO WITH A WARM OR
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO NRN KS EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD. CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE SFC LOW
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SE CO AND WRN KS. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
   INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND EXPAND EWD
   INTO NRN KS AND SERN NEB. ISOLATED NEW CONVECTION COULD ALSO DEVELOP
   IN WRN OK AND SRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
   WRN KS AND WRN OK FOR 21Z SUNDAY SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 0-6
   KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE BEST
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD EXIST NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN WRN KS...NRN
   KS AND SE NEB AND WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SRN KS DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY IN WRN
   AND NRN KS WHERE SFC WINDS WILL BE BACKED ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR.
   
   SOUTH ACROSS WCNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX...A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE
   SHOULD BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD
   HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH...BEGINS TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
   REGION. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY AROUND 00Z MON ALONG THE
   DRYLINE FROM NCNTRL OK SWD INTO NCNTRL TX. STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UPPER-FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY AS
   SUPERCELLS MATURE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE A LINE
   DEVELOPS AND MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ERN OK AND NE TX. THE TORNADO
   THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS NE TX WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
   EXIST AND SUPERCELLS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
   TIME.
   
   IT APPEARS A LINEAR MCS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS
   ERN KS...ERN OK INTO WRN MO AND WRN AR. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREATS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...
   AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MN
   EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AS ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
   APPROACHING UPPER-LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUN ACROSS NW IA
   SHOW COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. THIS
   SUGGESTS A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   FARTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
   DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
   WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF HAIL POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER... WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LESS
   STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ISOLATED WITH ONLY A
   MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/09/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

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