SPC AC 231728
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S MSO 10 ESE
   WEY 10 SSE LND 4FC PUB 45 S LHX EHA CSM ADM TYR 15 S LFK HOU PSX 10
   E HDO 20 SE DRT ...CONT... DUG PRC IGM LAS 15 SE TVL MHS 10 SW MFR
   PDX 55 ENE BLI.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF
   THE ROCKIES...IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
   DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CURRENTLY STILL EVOLVING OVER THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES REGION.  CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
   INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN SYSTEM MAY
   BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.
   
   BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN
   NORTHERN AMERICA...BUT MODELS INDICATE CENTER OF BROAD SOUTHERN
   BRANCH CIRCULATION WILL REFORM FARTHER WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST. 
   SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH BASE OF THIS
   CIRCULATION...AND READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS PROGGED
   BY MODELS TO MIGRATE INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU LATER
   TONIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER
   SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD SUNDAY...GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN
   UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
   REGION.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO TEXAS
   SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
   
   ...LEE OF SRN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS...
   MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD SPREAD EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO HIGH
   PLAINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING
   BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF
   MEXICO WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR INTO THIS REGION...ENOUGH MOISTENING IS
   EXPECTED FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. 
   NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   APPEAR POSSIBLE.  ENHANCED BY MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES... A STORM OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE
   LIMITS BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
   
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
   DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
   ON LEADING EDGE OF BETTER GULF MOISTURE RETURN...INSTABILITY COULD
   BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS WITH HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
   CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO I-35 CORRIDOR OF
   CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY MONDAY.
   
   ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE WEST SUNDAY...GENERALLY BENEATH MID-LEVEL
   THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...SOUTH/WEST OF DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM
   THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/23/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z