SPC AC 250453
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2005
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 40
   W FMY ...CONT... 20 NE GLS MEM MKL 40 SSW BNA RMG ATL MCN SSI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS SLK GFL ISP
   ...CONT... PBI EYW ...CONT... 40 SSW PSX BEH LAN MTC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4OM GEG 27U 45 S CPR
   LAR 40 N 4FC GJT DRO 55 S ALS DHT 55 E AMA CDS 40 NNW BGS CNM ALM
   TCS SOW LAS RNO RBL 35 W MHS EUG PDX 65 ESE BLI 4OM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MS DELTA REGION ACROSS
   AL...SWRN GA AND NRN FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER
   GREAT LAKES AND MEAN RIDGE FROM NWRN MEX NWWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW
   REGION.  ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SRN UT TO SERN CO -- WILL BE ENTRAINED IN NWLY
   FLOW AROUND SWRN QUADRANT OF GREAT LAKES VORTEX DURING DAY-1.  THIS
   PERTURBATION WILL DEAMPLIFY DAY-2 AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY
   REGION.  MEANWHILE STRONG NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER SRN MB WILL
   PIVOT SEWD OVER MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY DAY2. 
   ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT BY 26/12Z SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SFC
   LOW SSWWD TOWARD ERN AR THEN SWWD OVER TX COASTAL PLAIN.  BY 27/12Z
   FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...CENTRAL/WRN
   GA...WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN GULF.
   
   ...SERN CONUS...
   SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 26/12Z IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS
   FROM AR/NRN LA/WRN MS REGION ESEWD ACROSS AL.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
   MAY BE SEVERE...GIVEN TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND ASSOCIATED
   FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS REGION.  LATER/DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
   FORMATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN BROAD AREA WILL DEPEND
   STRONGLY ON MESOSCALE DETAILS -- IN PARTICULAR...BOUNDARIES PRODUCED
   BY MORNING ACTIVITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN CLOUDED AND
   UNCLOUDED AREAS.  THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF RELATIVELY
   ENHANCED PROBABILITIES ACROSS DEEP S STATES WHERE POTENTIAL IS
   GREATEST FOR SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING AND REGENERATION OF SEVERE
   POTENTIAL AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.
   
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA -- EVEN AT BEGINNING OF
   PERIOD -- RELATED TO VEERING FLOW JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND
   BACKED FLOW INVOF MARINE/WARM FRONT ACROSS AL. ANY
   DISCRETE/SFC-BASED TSTMS EARLY IN PERIOD OVER AL...SWRN GA AND WRN
   FL PANHANDLE REGION MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH SOME TORNADO
   POTENTIAL...GIVEN PROGGED WARM SECTOR HODOGRAPHS THAT SHOW 150-300
   J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND 60-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR USING SFC-BASED
   EFFECTIVE LIFTED LAYER.  ACTIVITY CLOSER TO COLD FRONT MAY BE MORE
   LINEAR WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   STILL WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LOW-MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
   SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG IN AIR MASS NOT STABILIZED
   BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND TOWARD NRN FL
   AFTER DARK AS PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE LINE AIDS IN TSTM
   FORMATION OVER GULF...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/25/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z